Summary: Last week (Feb 10) Brazil exported 1.21 MMT of corn, up 234,000 MT from the previous week. Argentine exports were 306,000 MT. Shipments from Ukraine were 867,000 MT. US corn exports were 512,000 MT. Brazil’s total corn export “commitments”, for the local marketing year, are 49.00 MMT vs 20.77 MMT last year. Brazil’s corn “commitments” declined 205,000 MT this past. Ship lineup data indicates that 2.23 MMT could be shipped in February. Last year’s February shipments were 2504,000 MT but official SESEX exports were 773,000 MT. USDA’s February WASDE projection of Brazil’s “old-crop” exports was 48.00 MMT, up 1.5 MMT from the previous month. USDA’s projection for “new-crop” exports was raised 3 MMT to a record 50 MMT. ARC expects final old-crop exports to be 49 MMT – – 1 MMT more than USDA’s projection.
As of Feb 10, Brazil’s corn marketing year (Mar-Feb) export “commitments” are estimated to be 49.00 MMT. That is down 205,000 MT from the previous week, but it is 136% MORE than a year ago, and the largest figure for this date (see chart below). USDA projects exports will be up 128%.
This week, the tonnage of vessels that were waiting (or scheduled to arrive) was 1.38 MMT vs just 144,000 MT a year ago (see chart below).
The chart below shows that corn export commitments over 1.0 MMT above the USDA’s projection and there’s still two-and-a half weeks left in Brazil’s local marketing year. Commitments have accounted for 102.1% of projected exports vs last year’s 98.8% and the 5-year average ratio of 100.0% (range 98.8%-101.3%). Using the 5-year average ratio, commitments today imply annual exports of 49.02 MMT.
The chart below shows the monthly seasonal of Brazil corn exports for the local marketing year (Mar-Feb). The black circles represent monthly shipments based on shipping data. The red triangles represent official SECEX monthly exports. The green squares are last year’s SECEX monthly exports. There is 2.44 MMT scheduled to be shipped in February.