** 6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: March soybeans are up 4.25 cents at $10.3625, March corn is up 1.0 cent at $3.6575, and March Chi wheat is up 3.50 cents at $4.5475.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! The overnight CBOT trade started out mixed, but has rallied on the morning hours as traders brace for WASDE updates on 2018/19 US corn, soybean and wheat end stocks (and soy product stocks). Moreover, CBOT futures have gapped higher to start prior weeks on concerning Argentine weather forecasts and falling crop production ideas. That same thinking applies heading into the weekend with limited rains offered for the dry ag areas of Argentina. Additional weather premium is being added. ARC notes that March options expire today and could have an influence on flat prices heading into the close.
WASDE is just out with their 1st 2018/19 balance sheets at 6:00 AM CST. WASDE estimated 2018/19 US corn end stocks at 2,272 Mil Bu (down 80 Mil Bu from the current crop year) with seedings at 90 Mil acres, harvested acres at 82.7 Mil acres amid a better than expected yield of 174 BPA. 2018 US corn production was put at 14.390 Bil Bu (down 214 Mil Bu).
2018/19 US corn exports were pegged at 1,900 Mil Bu with ethanol grind at a record 5,650 Mil Bu. US total corn use in 2018/19 was pegged at 14,500 Mil Bu.
US 2018/19 US wheat end stocks were estimated at 931 Mil Bu with a yield of 47.4 BPA (trend) and planted area of 46.5 Mil acres (up 500,000 acres). 2018 US wheat production was pegged at 1,839 Mil Bu with US exports at 925 Mil Bu.
WASDE made no adjustment for the extremely dry conditions across the Plains knowing that April and May rains can salvage HRW yield/harvested acres.
WASDE forecast 2018/19 US soybean end stocks at 460 Mil Bu with a yield of 48.5 BPA and planted area of 90 Mil acres. WASDE placed 2018/19 US soy exports at a record large 2,300 Mil Bu which indicates no slowing trade with China and the likely reduction in 2018 Argentine soy production. The 2018/19 US soybean crush was forecast to rise to a record large 1,980 Mil Bu.
The WASDE 2018/19 forecasts are not surprising to the marketplace as they reflect another year of large US corn, soy and wheat end stocks with normal weather. Lasting price rallies only occur amid a supply dislocation!
The Argy overnight weather forecast is little changed from prior days with some lite rain noted fort the far western Argentine ag areas. The main Argentine ag area will hold in an arid trend next week with hints of some rain in the 11-15 day period. High temps range from the mid 80’s to mid 90’s.
AgResource looks for a firm CBOT session as the bears remember the sharply higher prices in past weekly starts — and will be reluctant to make sales.
