Weather

Afternoon Weather Update

Mar 22, 4:30 pm | Weather

US Pattern Unchanged; Slightly Wetter in Plains 8-15 Day Period: The EU and GFS continue in broad agreement on US weather through early April, though the afternoon run of the EU model has added precip totals and coverage to the Central Plains mid/late next week. All indications point toward a substantial pattern shift in the next few days, one that will trigger drought erosion across the driest areas of the Central US in the weeks ahead. NOAA’s best guess on rainfall through early next week is attached, and only the southern HRW Belt will be short-changed.   Several frontal systems are scheduled for the next 10-12 days. The first event begins by Fri/Sat, but the bulk of rainfall occurs on the…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Mar 21, 4:43 pm | Weather

US Forecast Details Mixed; Pattern Trends Wetter early April: The EU & GFS models are in broad agreement that rains will largely miss the Western HRW Belt this weekend. However, the overall pattern thereafter has trended wetter into the first week of April, with NOAA’s 8-14 precip forecast below. How the 6-15 day model runs change in the days ahead will be important, but there’s a general consensus that the whole of the Central US will be well watered in the next 2-3 weeks.   The first of several rain events begins on Thurs/Fri. This system will focus on the E Plains, W Midwest and Delta. Another two systems are expected March 29-April 3, which look to be more expansive….

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Afternoon Weather Update

Mar 20, 4:16 pm | Weather

US Forecast Trending Wetter Across Plains: Model releases over the weekend rather quickly added rainfall amounts and coverage to the US Plains in the 6-15 day period. Two-week precip is attached, confidence is rising with respect to improvement in drought conditions across the HRW Belt near term, and an active pattern of precip is also expected in the first week of April. This will slow field precip but also ease abnormal dryness across much of the Corn Belt, and the outlook is viewed as favorable.   The primary theme remains that the mean position of the jet stream will move a bit southward, and carry a series of frontal system directly across the Plains and Midwest in the weeks ahead….

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Afternoon Weather Update

Mar 17, 3:55 pm | Weather

Brazil Likely Wet through April: Again AgResource highlights the lack of any evidence suggesting the wet season will end earlier than normal in key areas of Central Brazil. The graphic below displays the CFS model’s April precip outlook in South America, and the heart of Brazil’s safrinha Corn Belt is highlighted. Near normal precip continues in the near term, and looks to continue throughout the next several weeks. Vegetation health maps early next week should indicate improved conditions.   Lite but steady rainfall will be ongoing in Brazil throughout the next 14-15 days. Cumulative totals are (still) pegged at 2-6”, or roughly 60-120% of normal for late March/early April. Drier weather continues across the bulk of Argentine growing areas through…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Mar 16, 3:45 pm | Weather

Brazil Still Wet through April 1; Normal Spring Climate Expected: US & global spring climate forecasts were updated this morning, and outlooks still hinge largely upon neutral ENSO conditions. As such, normal rainfall is expected in South American through the end of June, as evidenced in the graphic at left, and recall the March climate outlook a year ago did include abnormal dryness through the spring of 2016. This year’s growing conditions remain much better than last year’s.   In the near term, the forecast is drier in Argentina next week but maintains normal shower activity across Central and Northern Brazil throughout the 2-week period. Cumulative rainfall across a vast majority of Brazil’s safrinha corn belt is estimated at 2-6”,…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Mar 15, 3:26 pm | Weather

South American Maintains Normal Rainfall in Brazil; Better Rain in Argentina Next Week: The updated South American outlooks are little changed from prior runs, and remain favorable through the very end of March. 7-day rainfall is below, and notice that elevated shower activity will persist across nearly the whole of Brazil through the period. Dryness in Argentina will help facilitate some very early corn harvesting, while potentially crop-finishing rains are forecast there in the 6-10 day period.   The dominant theme is still a lack of blocking high pressure aloft in the second half of March, and a rather normal climate lies ahead. Cumulative rainfall is Center-West Brazil, which accounts for 70-80% of safrinha corn production, is pegged at 2-6”…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Mar 14, 3:28 pm | Weather

South American Forecast Wetter in Argentina; Overall Favorable: The EU & GFS models are in agreement on a wetter pattern developing in Central Argentina beginning next week, and are otherwise unchanged. A high pressure Ridge has exited Brazil, and normal shower activity resume throughout the next two weeks. The graphic below displays the latest 16-30 day precip outlook, with Brazil’s safrinha corn belt highlighted, and there’s still no evidence of any premature end to the wet season through the first half of April. Vegetation health will remain above last year, and next week’s rain event in Argentina will cover later pollinating corn crops.   Cumulative precip in Center-West Brazil into March 30th is estimated in a range of 2-5”, roughly…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Mar 13, 4:14 pm | Weather

Brazilian Rainfall Extended Again: There is still no evidence of any lasting dryness in key parts of Central Brazil into at least the very end of March, and the EU & GFS models remain in good agreement. Also note that wetter conditions return to Argentina beyond the next 7-8 days, and the mix of rain and sun in Argentina in the second half of March is viewed as favorable. Seasonal climate forecasts, which will peak into Apr-Jun, will be updated on Thursday. The 7-day change in soil moisture is at left, with Brazil’s corn belt highlighted.   A high pressure Ridge aloft Central Brazil exits the country in the next 1-2 days, as expected, which will allow a normal flow…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Mar 10, 3:41 pm | Weather

Brazilian Rainfall Extended into Late March: The graphic below displays the GFS model’s 11-15 day precip forecast, which shows that there’s still no evidence of meaningful dryness across Brazil’s safrinha corn belt into the very end of March. Longer term climate guidance maintains normal rainfall across Mato Grosso, MGDS and Parana, which account for roughly 80% of Brazil’s second corn crop, and so the odds that production estimates will be changed in April reports are low.   Otherwise, normal precip returns to Brazil early next week as a high pressure Ridge fades. Dry weather persists in Argentina through the next 10 days, and there are hints of a boost in moisture thereafter. ARC also notes that South American temps into…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Mar 8, 4:09 pm | Weather

Drought Unlikely in South America through Early April: The South American forecast is little changed, and still leans slightly negative to price. Warm, dry weather into the weekend across Central Brazil will be followed by a return of normal rainfall thereafter. Moderate to in a few places soaking rain in Argentina fades into dryness next week, and this overall mix of rain and sun is viewed as conducive to additional yield gains. No extreme heat is noted.   The 16-30 day precip outlook is at left, and it’s noteworthy that, unlike a year ago, there are no signs of lasting dryness in key areas through the opening of April. Brazil’s safrinha Corn Belt is highlighted, and amid mostly adequate soil…

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