Weather

Afternoon Weather Update

Feb 22, 4:53 pm | Weather

Above Normal Rain Continues in Majority of Brazil Corn Belt: The South American forecast though early March lacks any blocking high pressure Ridge aloft, and so moisture will continue to flow across much of South America in the weeks ahead. The graphic attached displays the 7-day precip forecast, with Brazil’s safrinha Corn Belt highlighted. Cumulative totals are estimated at 2-5”; rainfall in the same period a year ago was recorded at just trace amounts to 3”.   The longer term outlook features ongoing rainfall across Central and Northern Brazil in the 8-15 day period, with a boost in precip coverage also offered to 80-90% of Argentina’s crop area. Guidance on the 16-30 day period features dryness in NE Brazil but…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Feb 21, 4:53 pm | Weather

South American Weather Favorable; Rain Added to Northern Brazil in Early March: The South American forecast continues to lack any evidence of drought through the middle part of March, and soil moisture will remain well above year-ago levels in the near term. Key is that normal/above normal precip returns to Central and Northern Brazil beyond the next 3-4 days, which will keep the newly planted safrinha corn crop well watered. Vegetation health compared to last year is left (major crop regions are highlighted), and aside from lingering drought in S Argentina, crop conditions remain excellent and high yields are expected. Near term, South American precip will be limited to just lite/scattered amounts into the coming weekend. Thereafter, a high pressure…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Feb 17, 4:55 pm | Weather

South American Unchanged; Favorable Through Early March: The forecast maintains a mix of rain and sun across a majority of crop producing areas through the next two weeks. Near term dryness in Central Brazil will further accelerate harvest progress there, while a more normal pattern of moisture returns mid/late next week. The graphic at left features the GFS (top) and EU 6-10 day rainfall outlook, and adequate/surplus soil moisture will be sustained for early safrinha development. Note also that Argentina’s forecast has trended relatively drier in recent model runs, and so excessive rainfall is unlikely.   A high pressure Ridge aloft Southern Brazil and Northern Argentina will briefly impact S America’s climate through next Wed/Thursday. Meaningful rainfall will be pushed…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Feb 16, 4:16 pm | Weather

South American Weather Favorable; Climate Outlook Lacks Abnormal Conditions into May: A host of seasonal climate updates were released today, and for the most part no major abnormalities are expected in South America or across the Northern Hemisphere through spring. Mar-May S American precip is at left. Some dryness is possible across far Southern Brazil, but otherwise normal climatological conditions are expected. And amid recent and upcoming precip, soil moisture is by far better than last year across the whole of Brazil, and early safrinha corn conditions should be mostly GD/EX.   In the near term, meaningful rainfall in Brazil will be confined to Mato Grosso and fringe producing regions in the far North. The drier pattern elsewhere will be…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Feb 14, 4:42 pm | Weather

Argentina Wet; Widespread Flooding Unlikely: The South American forecast maintains an active pattern of rainfall across Argentina through the next 10 days, but not to the degree of last February, and excessive moisture should be limited to parts of Entre Rios in far Eastern Argentina. We further note that Brazil’s pattern is rather favorable for production. Simply put, a year drought began to build in Central and Northern Brazil in late Feb; no drought is indicated this year through the opening week of March. The 16-30 day outlook (attached) is also void of abnormal dryness.   Steady rain will continue in Mato Grosso through next week, but the remainder of Brazil’s soy belt will see just lite rain every 1-2…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Feb 13, 4:30 pm | Weather

Vegetation Health Excellent in Brazil; Slowly Improving in Argentina: The South American forecast remains favorable for crops. Note that less rain fell across Northern Argentina on the weekend, which is a relief to farmers there, and a more normal climate lies in the offing in the next 10 days for N Brazil. Vegetation health compared to a year ago is at left and argues for record Brazilian yields.   Excessive rainfall ends in Mato Grosso in Central Brazil in the next 48 hours. Thereafter, only lite showers will impact Central & Northern Brazil every 1-2 days into Feb 27th. Cumulative totals are estimated in a range 1-6”, or 60-90% of normal, which will favor far N Brazil. Such a pattern…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Feb 10, 4:42 pm | Weather

Brazil Drier Late Next Week; Excessive Argentine Rainfall not Lasting: The  forecast is unchanged. Too much rain will fall across N Brazil and N Argentina in the near term, but this does not look to be a stagnant pattern like last year – and overall the boost in soil moisture will be welcomed in Goias and Bahia in Northern Brazil. Heavy daily showers will persist across much of Central and Northern Brazil through early next week & heavy isolated (and mostly unwanted) showers will impact Northern Argentina this week. Totals in parts of Santa Fe and fringe areas in N Argentina will reach as high 5-6”, though the latest model updates do keep such rain isolated to just 6-8% of…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Feb 8, 5:34 pm | Weather

Heavy Rains Projected in Northern Argentina Next 10 Days: The South American forecast has trended wetter in Northern Argentina into late February, but is unchanged elsewhere. The graphic below displays the GFS’s 7-day precip outlook, and highlighted is a region in N Argentina that’s projected to see accumulation of 6-8” through the period. So far this does not encompass any major production region (some 8-10% of soy is produced in the highlighted area), but the trade is well aware of the market’s surge last Mar/Apr. We also mention that welcomed rains will impact Northern Brazil, where more rainfall Feb 1-22 is expected to be double that of a year ago. Overall, our work suggests that Brazilian crops are getting larger;…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Feb 7, 4:42 pm | Weather

Ongoing Rain to Slow Harvest in N Brazil; Soil Moisture Much Better than Year Ago: Pesky showers will continue to hinder soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso, but otherwise fringe producing areas in far Northern Brazil will welcome additional rainfall, and harvest in Central areas (Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul) will accelerate in the next few weeks. A drier pattern is desired in Center-West Brazil, but still there are no major crop threats into late month. 30-day % of normal rainfall is at left, and conditions in NE Brazil (highlighted) are much improved from last year. Recall very little rain fell across Goias and Bahia in Feb last year; normal/above normal rain is expected this year.     The near…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Feb 6, 4:49 pm | Weather

Argentine Climate Normalizes; Favorable Dryness Offered to Central Brazil: Rain in Argentina over the past week fell close to expectations, with widespread totals of 1-2” noted across Cordoba, Santa Fe, Entre Rios and the driest areas of La Pampa & Buenos Aires. Coverage included some 85-90% of Argentina’s Ag Belt, and the moisture was welcomed. Moving forward, a nice mix of rain and sun – and no extreme heat – is forecast in Argentina in to the latter part of Feb, while a drier pattern develops across Southern & Central Brazil, allowing harvest to accelerate. AgResource sees no major issues with South American weather over the next two weeks.   Dry, mild conditions return to Argentina through the week ahead,…

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