Weather

Afternoon Weather Update

May 25, 4:48 pm | Weather

US Forecast Stays Cool, Maintains Active Flow of Moisture in E Corn Belt: It’s still difficult to measure production prospects against recent and upcoming weather. The Plains and far W Corn Belt will see a near ideal mix of rain/sun and slightly warmer than normal temps. The Eastern Midwest, however, will continue to be plagued by cool temps and ongoing rains. The GFS model’s two week precip forecast is attached.   The EU & GFS models are in good agreement on the pattern ahead, and the issue is the lasting presence of a low pressure Trough aloft the Great Lakes and SE Canada. This changes only briefly late next week, with additional lite/moderate rain to return to the E Corn…

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Afternoon Weather Update

May 24, 4:26 pm | Weather

US Forecast Drier Outside of Lakes Region; Still Cold: The major forecasting models continue to trend drier in the 6-15 day period, and additional soaking rain is unlikely through the first week of June. However, regional precip will linger in areas surrounding the Great Lakes, which along will below normal temps through the period will limit crop growth and keep condition ratings well below previous years in IL, IN, OH and MI. The GFS model’s 6-10 day outlook is at left.   Steady shower activity finally ends across the E Corn Belt by late Friday. Additional precip in IN, OH, MI and PA in the next 48 hours is estimated in a range of .50-1.50”. Totals across the E Corn…

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Afternoon Weather Update

May 23, 4:48 pm | Weather

Seasonal Weather Forecast in Plains; Wet Pattern Continues in East: The GFS trended a bit drier across the Central US in the 6-10 day period, but AgResource doubts a lasting period of dryness lies in the offing.   Already, showers are forecast to impact areas east of the MS River June 3-6, and soaking precip in early June is unwanted there following heavy accumulation to date. The GFS’s two-week precip outlook is at left, and crops will continue to struggle in IL, MI, IL, IN and OH.   A deep low pressure Trough will meander across the Ohio Valley into late week, allowing moderate rain and cooler than normal temps. Additional rainfall of .25-2.00” is offered to the E Corn…

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Afternoon Weather Update

May 22, 4:55 pm | Weather

Lasting Dryness Absent from Central US Next Two Weeks: The near term precip forecast is at left, and amid lingering low pressure aloft Canada & the Great Lakes an active pattern of rainfall is likely to persist into the opening week of June. Excessive, like that seen in early May, is not indicated, but a lack of sun and sustained dryness will continue to plague fields across the Eastern Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. As our work this evening detailed, there is a point where rain no longer makes grain, and drier weather will be needed in June.   Lite but widespread showers will impact the Plains and Midwest in the next 48 hours. Heavier follow up precip is scheduled for the coming…

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Afternoon Weather Update

May 19, 4:22 pm | Weather

US Forecast Somewhat Drier 8-15 Day Period; Climate Forecast Cooler into late June: The details of this weekend’s system have been fine-tuned, and the outlook through the middle of next week has trended wetter in the Central and Eastern Midwest. A much cooler pattern is still scheduled to begin by early next week, and looks to stay intact through the next 3-4 weeks. The GFS model’s week 1 (top) and week 2 precip forecast is at left.   Updated radar maps include scattered rainfall across much of the Central US currently. Moderate rainfall will then linger through the weekend and lite follow up showers are indicated Mon/Tues. NOAA’s QPF now features cumulative rainfall of 2-3” across TX, OK, MO, IL, IN,…

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Afternoon Weather Update

May 18, 4:42 pm | Weather

US Forecast Stays Cool into June; Favorable Summer Predicted: The near term forecast is wetter nearby and still lacks any major pattern shift to warmer temps through the end of May. Highs will peak Fri/Saturday, before cooling thereafter, and recently planted crop growth will be slowed.   NOAA also released its updated summer climate forecast this AM, and the outlook through late August has trended a bit cooler. In its text discussion, NOAA states the recent and upcoming boost in Central US soil moisture will limit excessive heat in the months ahead. A neutral ENSO is also indicated through late summer, which will keep precipitation through the period close to normal. This week’s drought monitor shows ongoing dryness in parts…

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Afternoon Weather Update

May 17, 3:44 pm | Weather

US Forecast Wetter Nearby; Wet/Cool Pattern Possible through Mid-June: The major forecasting models have trended just a bit wetter through early next week, with cumulative totals now estimated in a range of 2-4” across OK, KS, MO, NE, IA and W IL through next Mon/Tues. Otherwise the outlook is little changed, and a shift to cooler temps lies in the offing. The CFS (NOAA) model’s 16-30 day outlook is at left, and notice that normal/below normal temp and above normal precip is indicated June 1-15. The extended range climate outlook has been wet/cool for several days now.   Scattered showers will impact the Plains & W Midwest in the next 24 hours. The bulk of near term precip, however, falls…

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Afternoon Weather Update

May 16, 4:44 pm | Weather

US Forecast Trends Cooler in Late May: Summer-like temps will be widespread across the Central US through the next 72 hours, but abnormally cool reading return thereafter. A cooler Canadian air mass forces the jet stream southward beginning late in the coming weekend, and the major forecasting models are in agreement that below normal temps will persist into very last week of the month. NOAA’s extended range outlook is below, and the lack of growing degree days will keep emergence/growth slower than normal.   Moderate to heavy rain will sweep through the C and N Plains in the next 24 hours. A second frontal system will work across a majority of the Central US Fri-Mon, with cumulative totals estimated at…

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Afternoon Weather Update

May 15, 4:42 pm | Weather

US Forecast is Wet into Late May; Planting to Expand In East into Friday: The graphic attached displays precip accumulation since Friday, and the E Corn Belt enjoyed a lasting period of dryness, that was so badly needed. Another 60 hours of warm/dry weather persists before a more active pattern of moisture returns. The GFS & EU models are in agreement that the second half of May will be wet. Temps vary, but neither excessive heat nor excessive cold is indicated     A broad Trough/Ridge pattern continues into Wed/Thursday, and this will sustain a period of dryness and normal/above normal temps across much of the Corn Belt through the period. Thereafter, cooler Canadian air presses into the Central US,…

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World Wheat Prices End Lower; Black Sea Weather Favorable

May 15, 4:38 pm | Weather

US winter wheat conditions continue to erode, but weather elsewhere is viewed as mostly favorable. Most importantly, ongoing soaking precip is expected in France, Germany and Southern & Central Russia into late month, further easing concerns of dryness there, and note that the crop’s critical heading stage will occur soon thereafter. Rallies have struggled amid record old crop stocks, and a lack of weather threats in the world’s largest exporting region, but spot CME futures are viewed as cheap at current prices, and we continue to advise patience with respect to advancing cash sales.   Winter wheat ratings fell to 51% GD/EX, vs. 53% a week ago and 62% on this date in 2016. Notice the difference in the trend…

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