Weather

Afternoon Weather Update

Sep 22, 3:18 pm | Weather

Hot Weekend Ahead; Harvest Delays Only Brief: The overall US weather pattern is little changed from prior runs, but the major models continue to advertise near complete dryness beginning mid/late next week, which continues into the first week of October. Projected high temps on Saturday is displayed at left, and notice that readings in the 90s and low 100s will spread across much of the Plains and W Midwest. Crop maturity will be accelerated.   The models also still indicated soaking rainfall Sun-Tues, and predicted totals have been raised slightly across NE, the Dakotas and MN. Accumulation of 3-4” will be common across a majority of the Plains. This will disrupt harvest/winter wheat planting, but only temporarily, as normal/above normal temps…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Sep 21, 4:10 pm | Weather

Warm Autumn Predicted; Drought Outlook Mixed: NOAA’s updated climate forecasts this AM included ongoing normal/above normal temps through December, and mostly dry weather across the Central US over the next 45 days. The odds of La Nina developing in late fall/winter were boosted noticeably (62%, vs. just 26% last month), and overall drought is expected to persist/expand acros the Plains. Modest drought relief is offered to the Plains and IA.   The US drought monitor this week featured class reductions in MT, ND and MN, but an expansion in abnormal dryness in MO, IA, IL, IN and MI – which provides evidence that NASSS yields are overstated. Heavy rains lie in the offing Sun-Tuesday across the Plains, but no precip…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Sep 20, 4:27 pm | Weather

Central US Drier 8-15 Day Period, Warm into early October: The near term outlook is unchanged, and still rather wet across the Plains and W Midwest. The extended range forecast has trended drier and so harvest progress and crop maturity will be accelerated in the early part of October. The latest CFS Oct temp outlook is attached, and ARC’s climate work also suggests the first half of fall will be marked by normal/above normal temps. Note that NOAA’s official Oct-Dec outlooks will be released Thursday AM.   Lite rain will be scattered across the Central Midwest beginning Thurs, but the bulk of upcoming rainfall occurs Sun-Tues as a noticeable Trough/Ridge upper air pattern is established. Totals of 2-3” are offered…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Sep 19, 4:26 pm | Weather

Active Showers in Plains Sun-Tues; Still No Frost Indicated: The Central US pattern through late month is similar to prior runs. A broad Trough/Ridge upper air flow will persist for another 7-8 days, which will allow ample moisture to work through the entirety of the Plains beginning this weekend. Temps will exist mostly above normal through the period, with high temps into the weekend to reach into the 80s and low 90s.   NOAA’s QPF indicates that rainfall upwards of 3-5” will impact the C Plains and Upper Midwest early next week. Follow up showers are likely across TX/OK next Wed-Thurs, and coming rain will help in easing long term drought. ARC does mention that a lasting patter of soaking rain…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Sep 18, 4:50 pm | Weather

Wet Pattern Continues in West; Dryness Persists in East: A steady flow of moisture is projected through the next 10-12 days across the Plains & Western Midwest as a broad Trough/Ridge pattern is established. Little rain and ongoing warmth is forecast across the Southeast and E Midwest, which will accelerate crop maturity and harvesting there. The US forecast is viewed as mostly benign, though a close eye will be kept on continued activity in the Atlantic.   Near daily showers will be featured across the C Plains, IA & MN beginning late this week and lasting through Sep 29th. Yet more potentially heavy rainfall is offered to TX, OK, KS, NE and IA in the 8-14 day period, and accumulation…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Sep 15, 4:55 pm | Weather

Central US Maintains Wet Pattern Shift; First Frost Possible after Sept 30th: The US forecast is slightly cooler in the 11-15 day period, but otherwise unchanged. A warm/dry weekend lies ahead. A more active pattern follows with increased showers/storms, and while sub-freezing lows are offered to the Upper Midwest after Sep 30th. Such cold will not be much of a threat to yield.  And prior to late Sep, the US temp profile will be abnormally warm.   High temps this weekend will reach the 80s and 90s across the Plains and W Corn Belt. Temps next week will be a bit milder but still range in the 70s and 80s. Crop maturity will be accelerated by the upcoming warmth.   Beginning…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Sep 14, 4:57 pm | Weather

Central US Forecast: Wet 4-10 Day Period; Still No Frost: The US forecast is little changed from prior runs, and a noticeable pattern shift is due late this weekend. Prolonged dryness will finally end, and a series of lite but continuous showers is offered to the Plains and Midwest Sep 18-25. Unseasonable warmth returns next week.   Very late planted beans will benefit slightly from upcoming moisture, but otherwise late September’s pattern shift will do little to affect US corn & soybean supply – and notice that drought has expanded considerably in the last week. Another few days of complete dryness and near normal temps lie in the offing. Beginning Sun/Mon a broad Trough/Ridge upper air flow develops, which will push…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Sep 13, 3:23 pm | Weather

A change in the US weather pattern is offered for October, with above normal rainfall slated to fall across the N Plains and Midwest. La Nina is rapidly forming in the equatorial Pacific and its influence is starting to be felt in Northern Hemisphere weather. The long range models are all starting to raise the flag on La Nina as being an important weather feature for 2018.   The EU model October rainfall forecast is attached. Note the trend of above normal rainfall for the N Plains and much of the Midwest. A drying trend should be offered to the southern half of the US with above normal temperatures. This long range forecast is confirmed by the pattern change afoot as…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Sep 11, 4:40 pm | Weather

GFS Stays Wet 8-15 Day Period; No Frost in Sight: The remnants of Irma will meander across the Southeast over the next 48 hours, but only trace amounts are likely to reach into S IL, IN and OH. Complete dryness persists elsewhere across the Central US through the week ahead, though the extended forecast maintains better rain chances, and a noticeably warmer temp profile lies in the offing. The GFS’s week 1 (top) and week 2 precip outlooks are at left.   Heavy rainfall worth upwards of 3-5” will impact AL, GS, SC, TN and KY into Wed. Dry and warming weather is projected elsewhere as the mean position of the jet stream stays north of the US Ag Belt…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Sep 8, 4:43 pm | Weather

Irma Shifted Westward; Still No Rain Offered to Eastern Midwest: Hurricane Irma in the next few days will travel through the entirety of Florida and then turn inland into the Southeast. The cone of probability does include parts of IL & IN, but neither the GFS nor EU models project any meaningful rainfall north of KY. Irma will struggle as reaches the Smokies, and dissipate entirely soon thereafter.   And otherwise the outlook is unchanged into Sep 18th. The EU and GFS models generally agree that scattered showers will impact the Dakotas and MN late next week, but little/no rain is projected elsewhere across the Corn Belt. The midday GFS trended abruptly wetter in the Plains and W Midwest beyond…

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