Weather

Afternoon Weather Update

Jul 20, 4:18 pm | Weather

Forecast Little Changed; Rain Isolated to Northeast Corn Belt: The EU and GFS models continue in mostly good agreement, though with the GFS still the wetter of the two. Precip in the last 24 hours fell mostly as expected, but largely missed IA, and the pattern through the next 7-8 days remains dry and rather hot across the Plains and W Corn Belt. Temps today (yet again) reached into the upper 90s and low 100s across OK, KS, NE and MO.   This week’s drought monitor shows modest south and eastward expansion, and intensified further in the Dakotas. The theme into late next week remains one of high pressure dominating the Plains and W Midwest, and we look for further expansion…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Jul 19, 4:56 pm | Weather

New GFS Model Already in Better Agreement with EU; Crop Relief Minimal Next 10 Days: A newly updated GFS has its first run at midday, and though the accuracy of the updates will take time to measure, the EU and GFS models are already in much better agreement on the 10-day pattern. Both feature regional improvements in moisture (centered on the Eastern Corn Belt), but neither include an outright pattern change. ARC maintains that drought will continue to expand slightly into the opening week of August. 30-day % of normal rainfall is attached. IA & Southern IL are ground zero for additional problems.   Radar maps show heavy rainfall working across the far eastern part of the Dakotas and MN….

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Afternoon Weather Update

Jul 18, 4:35 pm | Weather

GFS Model Much Wetter; EU Model Little Changed: Model agreement remains poor beyond the next few days, and through the EU model has trended slightly wetter next week it still keeps meaningful precip isolated to the far Northern Corn Belt, as evidenced in the 10-day outlook below. AgResource will keep a very close eye on the trend in model releases in the next few days, but our bet is that July will end with expanding drought, rather than shrinking drought.   In the near term, potentially very heavy rain will ride along the northern edge of high pressure aloft, and totals upwards of 3-4” are projected through Fri/Sat across far E SD, N IA, MN and WI. The remainder of…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Jul 17, 4:34 pm | Weather

Model Agreement Poor; Dryness Mostly Likely Continues: The midday GFS trended wetter across the Eastern Plains & Midwest beginning next Mon/Tuesday, but so far no other model has validated this pattern shift. Rather, the EU model’s outlook, along with NOAA, projects ongoing heat across the Central Plains and below normal precip across a bulk of the Central US through the next 10-14 days. Our work suggests a pattern change won’t be established in full until the last half of August.   Near term, heavy but isolated showers will linger across the NW Midwest and Great Lakes Wed-Friday with accumulations pegged as high as 2-4” across pockets of IA, MN and WI. Rains will fall across the E Dakotas, but no change…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Jul 14, 2:23 pm | Weather

Forecasts Warmer Again; Heat Reaches Midwest Next Week: The major forecasting models are no longer as cool in the extended period, and through the next 10 days substantial declines in soil moisture are forecast across some 70-80% of the US Corn Belt. A high pressure Ridge intensifies and expands into the Midwest early next week. Maximum temps next Wednesday are at left, and notice that highs in the upper 90s will inch into IA, MO and IL. ARC’s work maintains that a major pattern shift is needed to keep US corn yield potential at 168 or better.   Isolated heavy rainfall worth .50-1.50” will impact MN, WI and pockets of IA next Tues-Thurs, but otherwise the Central US will be…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Jul 13, 4:39 pm | Weather

US Forecast Not as Hot; Precip Still Below Normal: There are signs of a frontal system impacting ND and MN late next week, but otherwise the 10-day pattern is little changed. The North American pattern will continue to be dominated by a transitory Ridge of high pressure, which in the near term will sustain above normal temps and below normal precip, particularly across the Central Plains. Current drought, and how it compares to last year, is at left. Conditions were raised a full class across the Dakotas & IA, and are likely to get worse before any potential relief occurs.   The mean position of Ridging currently rests across the southern US, and in the next few days will reach…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Jul 11, 4:57 pm | Weather

Heat Inches Eastward; Crop Benefit Only Regional Near Term: There’s still no sign of a major pattern shift as a strong high pressure Ridge looks to dominate the North American weather pattern through the final week of July. The midday GFS even pushed the Ridge eastward into the heart of the Corn Belt in the 8-15 day period. The major forecast models are in general agreement that as soils dry across the Western Midwest, excessive heat will inch into MO, IA and MN beginning next week. The outlook remains concerning for crops.   In the nearby, lite to moderate rainfall will ride along the northern edge of the high pressure Ridge. 7-day accumulation is at left, and pockets of the Eastern…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Jul 10, 4:52 pm | Corn, Weather

Stagnant Hot/Dry Pattern Scheduled through July 25th: The primary theme of today’s model runs is that of an amplified high pressure Ridge that will shift eastward into the heart of the Corn Belt early/mid-next week. This will produce heat/dryness to expand into the Midwest. Heat will be common nearby across the Plains and far W Midwest, and only pockets of the Corn Belt will benefit from meaningful rainfall over the next 72 hours. Overall, the outlook has gotten warmer & drier and there’s no sign of major pattern change into late July. The drought in the N Plains will shift south & east.   Moderate rain will move across the northern edge of this Ridge into Wed/Thursday providing rains of…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Jul 7, 4:57 pm | Weather

GFS Cooler in Midwest beyond July 20; Otherwise No Change to Outlook: The GFS at midday intensified a Ridge/Trough pattern, which will work to bring cooler – but still dry – air into the heart of the Midwest in the 12-15 day period. The EU model did not confirm this, however, and in the meantime ongoing warmth and dryness will dominate North America over the next 10 days. The projected 7-day change in soil moisture is at left. Abnormal dryness & drought will expand south and east in the next 7-10 days. High temps today again reached into the mid/upper 90s in OK and KS.   Moderate showers will ride along the northern edge of a high pressure Ridge Sun-Tues,…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Jul 6, 4:46 pm | Weather

Models Trend Warmer, Drier Across Plains: The GFS at midday pushed the mean position of high pressure Ridge directly into the Corn Belt beginning mid-next week, which if realized will promote a rather hot/dry pattern during the bulk of corn pollination. The GFS may be incorrect with the exact position of the Ridge, but the theme is still that a NW upper air flow will dominate North America into the latter part of July. As such, ARC fully expands drought to expand across the Central Plains and Western Corn Belt.   This NW air flow will be fully established in the days ahead. Lite to moderate rain will flow across the northern edge of the Ridge into early next week,…

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