Weather

Afternoon Weather Update

Apr 21, 3:45 pm | Weather

Flood Concerns Noted in Southern, Western Corn Belt Next Two Weeks: The US weather pattern through the first week of May is little changed from prior runs, and the EU, GFS and Canadian models feature excessive rainfall across parts of the S and W Midwest through the period. NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook is at left, and cool-ish, wet conditions will continue to act as a weight on normal corn planting progress. Note that should the forecast fully verify, cumulative rainfall of 5-8” could impact AR, MO, IA, S IL, S IN and KY into May 7th.   Through the weekend, a narrow band of heavy rain will impact OK, E KS and the S Midwest. Thereafter a broad Trough/Ridge pattern…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Apr 20, 4:37 pm | Weather

Central US Still Very Wet in Early May; Spring Climate Forecast Features Normal Precip, Above Normal Temps: The EU, GFS and Canadian models continue in good agreement, and all project another round of heavy shower activity across the E Plains and Midwest April 29-May 2. Note that midday GFS features totals in AR, MO and W IL upwards of 3-5”, which if realized will trigger regional flood concerns. Heavy rain also lies in the offing this weekend across OK, AR, MO, TN and KY, and so national planting progress will remain sluggish.   NOAA also updated its climate forecast through early summer this AM, and near normal precip and above normal temps are indicated. However, excessive heat looks to be…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Apr 19, 4:37 pm | Weather

Central US Wetter in Early May: The EU & GFS remain in mostly good agreement and the pattern through late next week is unchanged. Regional planting progress is expected in the next 6-7 days (particularly in NE, IA, N IL and IN), but thereafter a steady flow of moderate to heavy precip returns.   The overall pace of corn seeding will remain a bit sluggish through May 5th amid the lack of sustained dryness, and note that cool temps will persist across the Dakotas and S Canada. Week 1 (top) and week 2 precip is at left. Soaking moisture through the weekend will stay confined to the far Southern Midwest & Mid-South, though totals in MO, AR, S IL, KY and…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Apr 18, 4:50 pm | Weather

US Forecast Again Drier Next 10 Days: The EU & GFS models are in fair agreement. Both have pushed soaking rainfall through the weekend southward into the S Midwest and Mid-South, and also project drier weather for the Central Midwest. The GFS (top) and EU models’ 6-10 day precip outlook is at left, and if realized corn seeding progress will advance more normally in the second half of April.   A low pressure Trough will pull moderate to heavy moisture into the S Plains and S Midwest Fri-Sun, with cumulative totals reaching upwards of 2-3” across KS, MO, S IL, TN and KY. Totals elsewhere will be more scattered and range from .10-.75”. Beginning next week, low pressure aloft will…

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Spring Wheat Adds Weather Premium; Other Contracts Unchanged

Apr 18, 4:34 pm | Weather

Spring wheat futures in Minneapolis rallied sharply as planting delays look to be rather lengthy in the US and Canada. AgResource’s work also suggests that even amid trend yield, US spring wheat end stocks will tighten noticeably (40-50 Mil Bu), which places much more pressure on Canadian production. At left is the recent performance of MGE futures to other markets, and we expect these spreads to widen further amid any sign of adverse weather in late spring.   Otherwise, we also mention that the world cash market is well supported in the face of this week’s US losses. EU futures ended weak today, but cash prices are unchanged amid strength in the euro, and with Russian fob offers stable at…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Apr 17, 4:52 pm | Weather

US Forecast Slightly Warmer, Drier Nearby: The EU & GFS models are in agreement that, while an overall wet pattern looks to continue, regional pockets of dryness will develop this week. Freezing overnight lows will also stay confined to the Dakotas and Upper Great Lakes Region. NOAA’s best guess at precip through early Friday is below, and regional corn planting will resume across the Central Plains and parts of the Southern Midwest through the week ahead.   Scattered showers will move through the Dakotas and Western Corn Belt in the days ahead, but mild/dry conditions are offered to the remainder of the Central US into the weekend. Thereafter, it’s likely that active precip returns though, and two additional frontal systems will…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Apr 12, 4:48 pm | Weather

Wet Weather Returns to Central US: Following a few days of widespread dryness, an active flow of moisture returns to the Central into late April. NOAA’s 7-day outlook is at left, and the major forecasting models are in general agreement that widespread soaking rain impact the US again April 21-23. Drought will be in further retreat across the Southern Plains, and abnormal dryness will be eliminated entirely across SW Midwest, but early corn planting is unlikely this year.   Heavy rainfall impacts the Southern Plains in the next 48 hours, and the bulk of Midwestern precip occurs Sun-Wed. A nearly cut-off low pressure system is then indicated the following weekend, which if realized will trigger widespread precip of 1-3” across the…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Apr 10, 3:53 pm | Weather

Overall Wet Pattern Continues in Central US through April: A brief hiatus from ongoing rainfall is still expected through the next several days, though an active pattern of moderate rainfall returns by late week. Details will be worked out in coming model runs, but NOAA’s 8-14 day climate outlook is below and above normal rainfall is indicted through the last week of the month. It’s not an excessively wet outlook, but ARC maintains that very few Midwestern corn fields will be planted earlier than normal.   Meaningful precip through Wed/Thurs will be confined to E TX, LA and AR. Lite but widespread moisture is forecast on the weekend, with regionally heavy totals (.50+”) offered to E IA, WI and IL….

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Afternoon Weather Update

Apr 7, 4:34 pm | Weather

US Forecast Maintains Heavy Rain in Extended Period: A brief interlude in  rainfall pattern is scheduled for the next 5-6 days, and regionally some southern corn seeding is expected. However, the jet stream again looks to carry a series of frontal systems across the Plains and Midwest thereafter into April 23rd, and potentially heavy cumulative totals are forecast across the Delta/Southeast and S Midwest. Excessive rain/flooding is unlikely outside of pockets of TX, but the activity of rainfall into the latter part of April will keep early corn planting limited.  NOAA’s QPF through the next 5 days keeps meaningful precip confined to SD/MN and parts of TX, LA & AR. Dry and warming weather is forecast elsewhere. Beginning next Wed/Thursday,…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Apr 6, 4:52 pm | Weather

US Forecast Drier Near Term, Wetter 11-15 Day Period: Sporadic regional planting activity could occur late next week across the Central Plains & far SW Midwest. But elsewhere a lingering pattern of active rainfall looks to persist. Fortunately, US drought continues to erode, and severe drought has been eliminated across the Delta and the SW Midwest over the last four weeks.     Only scattered showers are forecast through late next week, and meaningful precip will generally be confined to the Great Lakes Region and North Atlantic. Lite showers will dot the Corn Belt again early next week, but totals in excess of .10-.25” are not indicated. Temps warm on the weekend, and highs will be sustained in the 60s…

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