Weather

Afternoon Weather Update

Nov 17, 3:38 pm | Weather

Weather Favorable in Brazil; Still Too Dry in Argentina: Over the next 10 days the mean position of South America’s jet stream will stay aligned just north of major Argentine growing areas. This will force ample moisture into the whole of Brazil through late November, which is a positive, but will also work to strip rainfall potential from Argentina. Cumulative Oct-Nov rainfall in Cordoba, Argentina, which accounts for 30-35% of the country’s corn & soybean production is attached. There’s only a “loose” correlation between Oct/Nov rainfall in yield, but declining soil moisture there become more important by mid-December. Only lite showers are offered to Argentina over the next two weeks.   However, near daily showers will continue in Central Brazil,…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Nov 16, 3:19 pm | Weather

Near Term South American Forecast Unchanged; Climate Outlook Reflects La Nina: There’s again no change to South America’s two-week forecast. Heavy rains will be a near daily feature in Central and Northern Brazil through the period, while rainfall in Argentina will be limited to lite/scattered amounts in parts of northern Cordoba & Santa Fe next week – which will cover just 15-20% of Argentina’s corn/soy belt. Brazilian soil moisture and vegetation health will continue to improve, while noticeable draws in soil moisture persist in Argentina.   In the last 48 hours a host of climate outlooks have been updated, and a common theme of all of them is the arrival of La Nina. La Nina won’t likely last longer than…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Nov 15, 4:00 pm | Weather

South American Forecast Unchanged; Brazil Wet, Argentina Dry: There’s no material change to the South American pattern through late Nov. Well above normal rainfall (upwards of 3-6”) will impact much of Central Brazil next week, while precip in Argentina will be isolated to lite/scattered totals today and again next Thurs/Fri. The GFS model hints at high temps in the 90s across Argentina beyond Nov 25. This is likely overdone, but ARC does remind clients that heat is typically exacerbated by the lack of soil moisture. Argentina needs meaningful rain by early December. The projected 7-day change in soil moisture is at left.   The S American jet stream moves northward in the next 48 hours, pushing heavy rainfall into the…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Nov 14, 4:37 pm | Weather

Argentine Forecast Slightly Wetter; La Nina Arrives: The equatorial Pacific has been at La Nina thresholds for two consecutive months, and all models remain in agreement that La Nina will be established officially by December. La Nina then persists into Feb/Mar. This won’t be an issue for the Northern Hemisphere growing season (neutral ENSO is expected by spring), but a close eye needs to be kept on Southern Brazil and Argentina over the next 90 days.   Brazil’s forecast is a bit wetter in the 6-10 day period, and soaking rainfall upwards of 4-6” will impact parts of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais – where it’s most needed.   The EU and GFS models are in fair agreement on…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Nov 13, 4:15 pm | Weather

Brazilian Forecast Wetter; Argentina Dry Next 10 Days: The EU and GFS model are in good agreement on a much more expansive pattern of rainfall impacting Brazil in the 6-15 day period. Both also agree that little or no rain will fall across key Argentine crop areas in the next 10 days. Better rain chances are offered to Argentina thereafter, but confidence is low, and model verification beyond 10 days has been somewhat mediocre recently. Dryness in Argentina is still a positive in the very near term, but crops will demand moisture by early Dec.   The South American jet stream will be pushed northward beyond the next 4-5 days, bring along with it regular daily showers to much of…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Nov 10, 4:19 pm | Weather

S American Weather Largely Favorable; Better Rain Needed in Argentina by December: The GFS’s projected soil moisture change makes clear that needed rainfall will continue to impact Central Brazil, and that needed dryness will be established elsewhere. No threatening heat is indicated, and vegetation health will be improving in South America.   Beyond the next week 6-7 days, rainfall in Brazil expands to include areas farther south such as Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, and so some 80-85% of Brazilian soybeans will be adequately watered by late November. However, only spotty rain is offered to key Argentine growing areas over the next two weeks. This, too, is needed in Buenos Aires & La Pampa, but Cordoba (which accounts for…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Nov 8, 4:35 pm | Weather

Brazil Wetter in Extended Period; Limited Rain across Argentina for next 2 weeks: This afternoon’s model releases feature a more expansive pattern of rainfall in Central Brazil in the 11-15 day period (see graphic), and if realized normal/above normal precip is indicated there into the latter part of November. Argentina will see little/no rain in the next two weeks, and longer term climate guidance is trending much drier in S Brazil during Dec-Jan.   We’ve mentioned that, more than recent years, S American weather needs close watching amid the establishment of La Nina, but the two-week forecast is favorable – even in Argentina, where dryness is needed to accelerate spring planting.  No lasting high pressure Ridging is indicated across Brazil through…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Nov 7, 4:56 pm | Weather

Brazil Monsoon Turns Weaker: The GFS and Canadian models overnight trended much drier across Central and Northern Brazil beyond the next 8-9 days. This is still a bit too far out to place much confidence in, but for now it appears abnormal dryness will remain featured in Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais. Soaking rain will impact the whole of Brazil in the meantime, but recall total rainfall accumulation since early August is well below average there, and even short term dryness in late Nov could be an issue. This, along with regional dryness in Argentina, raises the burden of Dec-Jan rainfall in South America. The GFS’s 11-15 day precip forecast is attached.    Lite but daily showers impact the…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Nov 6, 3:58 pm | Weather

South American Weather Generally Favorable; Argentina Needs Watching: The outlook through the latter part of November in South America is non-threatening, but somewhat quietly pockets of Argentina have been much drier than normal over the last 30 days. This isn’t yet an issue by itself, but does raise warning flags as La Nina develops, and as a warm/dry pattern is forecast across much of Argentina through the next 10 days. A needed surge in Brazilian soil moisture is still indicated.   A rich monsoonal flow will persist across nearly the whole of Brazil into Sat/Sun. Totals in excess of 3” will favor Mato Grosso, Goias and fringe producing areas in far Northern Brazil. Needed drier weather will be established next…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Nov 3, 3:57 pm | Weather

South American Forecast Improves: There are limited changes to the overall pattern through the next two weeks, but the extended forecast has trended a bit drier in S Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina – which is needed. The GFS’s week 1 (top) and week 2 (bottom) is favorable should the extended forecast verify, growing conditions will be near ideal.   Heavy precip will be spread across a vast majority of South America into early next week. This is good for Central Brazil but unwanted elsewhere. Beginning next Wed/Thurs South America’s jets stream shifts farther south, allowing rainfall to be limited to tropical events in Central and Northern Brazil, where cumulative rainfall is still well behind average. Normal temps and a lack…

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