July CME crawled to a modest 1-cent gain, but otherwise US & European markets ended lower again. After a lengthy absence (9 weeks) Egypt’s GASC has returned to the world market seeking supplies for late June, technically an old crop position (based on the int’l trade year). The tender will provide needed clarity for world cash markets, which have been uncertain amid the recent lull in global trade.
The graphic attached displays quoted global fob offers for June and August. Note that Gulf SRW is the world’s cheapest origin through mid-summer, and EU, Black Sea and HRW are within $4/MT of one another. It’s very likely that Egypt fills its tender tomorrow with supplies from E Europe or Russia, but the price Egypt pays will be most interesting. Egyptian tenders will also become more frequent in the weeks ahead.
Otherwise, early harvested HRW has yielded well below last year as combine activity expands. ARC expects NASS to further lower US HRW production 10-30 Mil Bu in June. Another round of soaking rain is due in the coming days across the Plains & Midwest through the weekend, and while weather elsewhere in the N Hemisphere is non-threatening. ARC advises end users to extend coverage of hi-pro wheat needs. This year’s cool/wet spring will not aid US wheat quality.
