Wheat ended mixed, with KC up slightly, CME down slightly and Minneapolis down 4-5 cents. Friday’s action will center mostly on winter wheat seedings, and to a lesser degree Dec 1 corn inventories. As a refresher, the trade estimates winter wheat seeding at 31.4 Mil, vs. 32.7 Mil in 2017/18.
US weekly export sales through last Thursday were even lower than the prior week, and obviously well below the pace needed to meet the USDA’s targets. It’s likely that old crop Russian wheat production & exports will be raised slightly, but amid a boost in global wheat trade in December the USDA’s 975 Mil Bu forecast seems fair – it will just be a smaller share of the global total. Otherwise, we mention a cooler pattern lies ahead for Central and parts of Southern Russia, which at the least needs monitoring. Severe drought is now established in TX & OK, and drought across the Plains will continue to worsen in the next two weeks. There’s still no demand-driven spark available, but like corn the wheat market must grapple with a massive fund short position and what looks to be a sizeable decline in US end stocks next year. No sales are advised.