** AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle futures traded a wide range through Thursday and finished well above the early lows, but still lower for the day. Cash markets went dim through Thursday, and a steady outlook is offered for early trade this morning. Feeders again marked even larger losses through the day, with August trading more than a $5 range while the cash index broke $2.16 to $145.50. A chart gap in August at $151.075-152.15 left at Wednesday’s open, leaves an upside technical target for later this month.
Beef prices were again $2.28 higher on choice and $2.04 on select on light offerings. Mother’s Day tends to be a big beef holiday, but Memorial Day weekend is also coming up fast.
Beef exports have slowed over the last several weeks and were below average last week, while net sales were the lowest since early February. However, export commitments are holding 21% over last year and remain record large, with shipments up 16% and outstanding sales are 31% larger.
With another big beef holiday left at the end of the month is expected to keep cattle prices up (above $130), which should in turn support the CME nearby. Volatility looks to stay high also.
** US Weather Pattern Discussion: The US/EU models are in good agreement and offer another round of wet weather starting mid next week. Severe storms are likely across the Plains early next week which will lodge wheat, but any new flooding concern will be focused on OK/KS where 1-4.00” of rain will be focused. The TX wheat harvest is just underway and OK is expected to start in the next few weeks, so wet weather is no longer desired.
ARC estimates that though Sunday, some 64-68% of the US corn crop will be seeded, just below the 5 year average of 71%. Warm/sunny and dry weather this weekend will help the dry down process.
The attached map depicts 10 day rainfall totals from the 6z GFS model.
Note that the heaviest rains will be targeting OK/KS/AR/MO. We suspect that this heavy rain will be a tad farther NE and include the southern half of IL.
The rain across the N Plains and NW Midwest will fall early next week and Canadian seeding will also be halted by cool/wet weather. This remains an active weather pattern with the 10-15 day period looking exceptionally wet that will further cause flood concerns and push the final effort of spring planting into June.
