Mixed To Start Week: News Lacking & Weather Within Expectations

May 14, 9:19 am | Sunday Commentary | Share this:

** AgResource Pre Opening Sunday CBOT Market Calls: Soybeans 2 cents lower to 1 cent higher, corn 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher with wheat called steady to 1 cent higher.

 ** Sunday Weather & Market Comment Discussion: Happy Mother’s Day! Pre-opening CBOT grain calls are mixed. Friday’s CBOT volume was the lowest for a non holiday trading session in recent memory and the weekend Central US weather forecast for the week ahead is well within the expectations left from Friday.  

  The week ahead lacks any big USDA reports that are going to jolt the CBOT out of its recent trading ranges. The market will be focusing on planting progress across the Northern Hemisphere and whether South American farmers are willing to part with recently harvested supply?

  ARC looks for some 84-67% of the US corn crop to be seeded while US wheat crop condition ratings are expected to decline 1-2% in the      GD/EX category as the damage from snow/cold/standing water are better known in HRW/SRW wheat. Disease pressures are growing and stem damage is starting to play havoc with the W Kansas HRW wheat. 

  Friday’s CFTC CoT reported that managed money is holding a net short Chi wheat position of 107,900 contracts (down 16,700), net short 208,600 contracts of corn (up 24,000), and in soybeans they are short 34,300 contracts (down 13,400). The combined net short is 350,600 contracts of the three major grains which is down around 6,000 contracts. Funds are still sitting in a sizeable net short    CBOT major grain position.  

** US Temperature Pattern to Reverse; Cold West and Warm East with the heaviest of the Rain Shifting to the Plains and W Midwest this Week. Too much rain will continue to bedevil crops! The US weather pattern will flip in the next 10-12 days with a Trough west and Ridge east profile indicated. This will allow for summerlike temps across the Delta and E Midwest while cold/wet weather slowly shifts across the west this week. The 6z 14 day rainfall map attached reflects estimated rainfall totals through May 30th. Notice the heavy totals that will impact the Plains and W Midwest in the next 2 weeks.

  The first in a series of storm systems will slowly pull out of the Plains and NW Midwest early this week producing showers/storms with rain accumulations of .5-2.50” thru Friday. The E Midwest stays warm/dry allowing for planting and replanting progress. High temps will range from the mid 70’s to mid 80’s.  

  The rains reach the E Midwest by the early weekend as the jet stream starts to sink southward due to a new Canadian cold air mass. The 11-15 day forecast calls for a potent storm system to pull eastward out of the C Plains and produce another round of heavy rain with below normal temps shifting eastward. 

** 14 Day GFS Rainfall Estimate 6z: