** AgResource Pre Opening Sunday CBOT Market Calls: Soybeans 2 cents lower to 1 cent higher, corn 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher with wheat called steady to 2 cents higher.
** Sunday Weather & Market Comment Discussion: Pre-opening CBOT grain calls are mixed. The week will start off with a market “fistfight” over cool/wet Central US weather and Brazilian political saga of Brazilian President Temer.
Over the weekend, Brazilian President Temer asked for the tape recordings to ** April-May Rain Totals ** be validated in a combative Saturday national speech. However, the Brazilian Order of Lawyers (OAB) on Sunday voted 25 to 1 for an impeachment hearing for Temer in the lower house of Congress. The impeachment could start this week. This would be the 2nd impeachment of a Brazilian president in just over 1.25 years! The news won’t be favorable for the Brazilian currency – the real, which could pressure soy futures as Brazilian farmers offer another package of cash soybeans for sale.
Too much rain & cool to cold temps has bedeviled Central US crops since April 1st. The map reflects rainfall totals for April/May (including totals for the next 10 days as offered by the GFS model). 12-20” of rain has produced flooding from MO into IL.
** April and May Central US Rainfall Totals:
Crops in these heavy rainfall areas are struggling with excessive soil moisture, but nearly all Central US crops are ragged looking due to below to much below normal temps. This is not a favorable start of the ‘17 season.
** Central US; Cool with Lite Showers this week, warm/drier on the weekend with cool/wet weather again early next week, and the return of heavy rainfall in the 11-15 day period. The Central US weather pattern remains active in a split jet stream flow. The forecast is wetter/warmer than what was offered on Friday. Too much rain will continue to bedevil crops with 4 storm systems to pass across the Central US in the next 2 weeks! The midday GFS 10 day rainfall forecast is below. Notice that heavy rains will persist across the W Plains, the Delta and Midwest this week. Winter wheat crops desire warm/dry weather as the crop comes closer to harvest.
The first in a series of storm systems will slowly pull through the Midwest early this week producing .2-.6”. A warm frontal system will produce rains across the Plains and W Midwest late week with rains of .4-1.25”. Temps are 7-15 degrees cooler than normal, but readings return to more seasonal levels on Friday on the weekend.
Another cold front pulls eastward early next week with rains of .25-1.00”. Limited rains are forecast for the N Plains where some worry over dryness is emerging.
** GFS 10 Day Rainfall Forecast:
