Lasting Dryness Absent from Central US Next Two Weeks: The near term precip forecast is at left, and amid lingering low pressure aloft Canada & the Great Lakes an active pattern of rainfall is likely to persist into the opening week of June. Excessive, like that seen in early May, is not indicated, but a lack of sun and sustained dryness will continue to plague fields across the Eastern Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. As our work this evening detailed, there is a point where rain no longer makes grain, and drier weather will be needed in June.
Lite but widespread showers will impact the Plains and Midwest in the next 48 hours. Heavier follow up precip is scheduled for the coming weekend, and 7-day accumulation is at left. Below normal temps (4-12 degrees) will be intact across much of the Central US through the balance of the week.
The EU, GFS and Canadian models are in decent agreement that the worst of the coming cool pattern will end by the weekend. Readings next week and beyond will be much closer to average, with highs reaching into the 70s and low 80s across a bulk of the US Corn Belt. However, yet more rain is offered to the E Palins, MO, IA, IL, IN and OH in the 11-15 day period, and so cumulative precip across the E Corn Belt in the next two weeks looks to range from 3-4”, or some 120-140% of normal.
The CFS model’s precip outlook for the month of June includes an ongoing pattern of normal/above normal rainfall. In most years this would be viewed as a positive, but following excessive moisture in April & May, it may work against boosting US corn yield potential. Drought is highly unlikely this year, but ARC will have a close eye on rainfall in June & early July, as well as DDG accumulation in the next several weeks. Too much water is our crop concern.