US Forecast Stays Cool, Maintains Active Flow of Moisture in E Corn Belt: It’s still difficult to measure production prospects against recent and upcoming weather. The Plains and far W Corn Belt will see a near ideal mix of rain/sun and slightly warmer than normal temps. The Eastern Midwest, however, will continue to be plagued by cool temps and ongoing rains. The GFS model’s two week precip forecast is attached.
The EU & GFS models are in good agreement on the pattern ahead, and the issue is the lasting presence of a low pressure Trough aloft the Great Lakes and SE Canada. This changes only briefly late next week, with additional lite/moderate rain to return to the E Corn Belt June 3-8. The models have also trended a bit cooler in the extended period, and there are hints the overnight lows in the upper 40s and lows 50s will appear as late as June 10th in areas surrounding the Great Lakes, which is rather abnormal.
A pattern shift will be required by mid-June to maintain trend yield potential in the wettest areas of IL, IN, OH and MI.
Hot/Dry Weather Lies Ahead in Europe: The European weather pattern looks to trend abruptly warmer and drier, which needs close monitoring amid climate forecasts that include such conditions throughout summer. Spotty showers will impact parts of Spain and France in the next 5-6 days, but otherwise soil moisture will be in retreat, and substantially so in certain areas. AgResource notes that precip since late April in Eastern France & Germany has been recorded at just 40-50% of normal, and with wheat’s critical heading stage due in the weeks ahead, vegetation health maps will important into mid-June.
High pressure Ridging will expand northward from N Africa beginning next week, which will act to push meaningful rainfall in Scandinavia and Central Russia. Warm, dry air will be intact elsewhere in the 6-15 day period, and 16-30 day guidance suggests a pattern of below normal precip and above normal temps will persist across much of Europe into June 23rd. This should underpin wheat on breaks