Central US Cooler Next 10 Days: The EU & GFS models are in agreement on a cooler temp profile through the next 10 days as the mean position of a high pressure Ridge stays isolated to the Southern and Western US. Confidence remains low in any forecast beyond the 10 days, but conditions through the balance of June will be modestly improved. Modest soil moisture loss will occur through the period, but the lack of heat-induced stress is noteworthy. NOAA’s 6-10 day outlook is attached.
Lite & scattered showers will impact the Great Lakes region later this week, and a tropical storm will move into the Delta/Southeast Wed-Friday, but otherwise there’s not a lot of moisture expected through June 30th. A fairly deep Trough of low pressure will be anchored aloft Eastern Canada, which will allow cooler air to flow across much of the Corn Belt over the next week or so, and the lack of any additional excessive heat is important. Net dryness will persist across the Plains and far Western Midwest, and there’s still a substantial need of above normal precip in July if trend yields are to be met. ARC cautions against expecting any trend to be lasting, and the mean position of a high pressure Ridge in July will be critical.
Europe to stay Hot/Dry through Next Week; Heat Reaches Ukraine in Late June: Excessive heat and a lack of precip will be intact across Central and Western Europe into late next week, and there’s a growing risk that similar conditions spread into Ukraine and Southern Russia by late month. The EU model’s 2-week temp anomaly forecast is attached, and wheat & corn yield estimates are being trimmed as high readings are sustained in the mid-90s – which in Europe is some 5-12 degrees above normal for late June.
A high pressure Ridge will be anchored aloft North Africa and Spain over the next 5-6 days, pushing Europe’s jet stream well north and east of major growing areas. Lite precip will move across Scandinavia and parts of Central Europe, but very little is offered to Spain, France and Germany nearby. This excessive heat transitions eastward into the Black Sea mid/late next week. Like in the US, EU/Black Sea corn will begin pollinating soon thereafter. The market will keep its focus on the US, but ARC notes less than ideal weather has been established across the EU, Southern Canada and Australia as of late.