Sirs and Ms:
There was a big error in the corn S&D scenario table that was published in yesterday’s Weekly Newsletter.
The spreadsheet we were using was importing last year’s beginning stocks (2016/17 = 1,737 Mil Bu)
It was supposed to import this year’s beginning stocks (2017/18 = 2,370 Mil Bu from the USDA’s Jul WASDE).
That’s an increase of 633 Mil Bu in supply.
Below is the correct version of the corn yield scenario table (on page 3 in last night’s report):
2017/18 |
2017/18 |
2017/18 |
2017/18 |
2017/18 |
2017/18 |
|
CORN |
156.0 Bu |
158.4 Bu |
160.8 Bu |
163.2 Bu |
165.6 Bu |
168.0 Bu |
|
|
Scenario |
Scenario |
Scenario |
Scenario |
Scenario |
Scenario |
Mln Acres, Bushels |
||||||
Area Planted |
90.9 |
90.9 |
90.9 |
90.9 |
90.9 |
90.9 |
Abandonment |
9.5% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
8.7% |
8.7% |
8.1% |
Area Harvested |
82.3 |
82.7 |
82.7 |
83.0 |
83.0 |
83.5 |
Yield |
156.0 |
158.4 |
160.8 |
163.2 |
165.6 |
168.0 |
Yield as % of “Trend” |
-8.7% |
-7.3% |
-5.9% |
-4.5% |
-3.1% |
-1.7% |
Production |
12,835 |
13,105 |
13,305 |
13,545 |
13,745 |
14,025 |
Beginning Stocks |
2,370 |
2,370 |
2,370 |
2,370 |
2,370 |
2,370 |
Imports |
100 |
90 |
75 |
70 |
60 |
55 |
Supply, Total |
15,305 |
15,565 |
15,750 |
15,985 |
16,175 |
16,450 |
Feed and Residual |
5,085 |
5,155 |
5,205 |
5,275 |
5,325 |
5,405 |
Food, Seed, Industrial |
6,885 |
6,885 |
6,915 |
6,925 |
6,930 |
6,940 |
Ethanol & By-products 1/ |
5,425 |
5,425 |
5,450 |
5,450 |
5,450 |
5,450 |
Food, Other Industrial 2/ |
1,430 |
1,430 |
1,435 |
1,455 |
1,450 |
1,460 |
Seed |
31 |
31 |
31 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
Domestic, Total |
11,970 |
12,040 |
12,120 |
12,200 |
12,255 |
12,345 |
Exports |
1,750 |
1,760 |
1,785 |
1,810 |
1,835 |
1,860 |
Use, Total |
13,720 |
13,800 |
13,905 |
14,010 |
14,090 |
14,205 |
Ending Stocks |
1,585 |
1,765 |
1,845 |
1,975 |
2,085 |
2,245 |
Ending Stocks/Use |
11.6% |
12.8% |
13.3% |
14.1% |
14.8% |
15.8% |
Crop Insure Initial Price ($/Bu) |
3.96 |
3.96 |
3.96 |
3.96 |
3.96 |
3.96 |
Avg. Farm Price ($/Bu) 3/ |
5.25 |
4.75 |
4.55 |
4.25 |
4.05 |
3.75 |
Fut-Based Frcst ($/Bu) 4/ |
3.75 |
3.75 |
3.75 |
3.75 |
3.75 |
3.75 |
August HIGH CZ17 Fut (S/Bu) 5/ |
5.20 |
4.85 |
4.65 |
4.50 |
4.35 |
4.15 |
August LOW CZ17 Fut ($/Bu) 6/ |
4.50 |
4.25 |
4.10 |
3.85 |
3.65 |
3.60 |
| Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. | ||||||
| Marketing year beginning September 1. | ||||||
| 1/Corn used to produce ethanol and by-products including distillers’ | ||||||
| grains, corn gluten feed, corn gluten meal and corn oil. | ||||||
| 2/Mostly for the production of sweeteners and starch. | ||||||
| 3/Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. | ||||||
| 4/ Based on deferred futures prices on Jul 18. | ||||||
| 5/ Since Jul WASDE (Jul 12) the high of CZ17 has been $4.17. | ||||||
| 6/ Since Jul WASDE (Jul 12) the low of CZ17 has been $3.82. | ||||||
