** AgResource Pre Opening Sunday Market Calls: Soybeans 3 cents lower to 1 cent higher, corn 2 cents lower to 1 cent higher with wheat called steady to 2 cents lower.
** Sunday Weather & Market Comment Discussion: Opening week CBOT calls are mixed as funds are stubbornly long and traders will have to decide how much faith to place in weather forecasts that call for better rain chances for the Central US later this week and during the 11-15 day period?
ARC forecasts a mixed CBOT trade to start the week with traders looking to the NASS Weekly Crop Progress report to help decide US 2017 US corn/soy yield prospects. Our research calls for a 1-2% drop in US soybean GD/EX conditions with spring wheat holding steady at a historically low level of 33% GD/EX.
**July 1-Aug 13 Percent of Normal Rain**
Friday’s CoT report reflected that managed money is clinging to net long CBOT positions – even as prices decline. For the week ending July 25, funds were net long 27,900 contracts of Chi wheat, 60,800 contracts of KC wheat, and 106,800 contracts of corn. In the complex, funds are long 50,900 contracts of soybeans and 62,600 contracts of soyoil, while being short 4,400 contracts of soymeal.
August soy deliveries were; 715 soybeans, 181 soymeal and 558 contracts of soyoil. The deliveries were a tad larger than expected on soybeans/soymeal.
Trend yields are out of the question for ‘17 US corn/soy crops. The big debate is whether ‘17 US corn yields will fall below 160 BPA and soybeans below 46 BPA? Such yields would shift the CBOT into a more dynamic bull phase.
** Central US Weather Pattern Discussion; The GFS & EU forecast models are in good agreement for the 7 days, and fair agreement thereafter. A Ridge/Trough pattern will hold across the Central US with a reduction in the overall amplitude of the flow after Aug 10th. The mean position of the Ridge will be along the Western US Coast with fronts dropping southeast through the Midwest. A late week front should have enough upper air humidity that it will be able to produce widely scattered showers over SD, MN, the northern half of IA and then eastward through the remainder of the E Midwest. Rain totals are estimated in range of .4-1.50” on coverage of 75%.
Dry weather follows for 3-4 days with better chances of Midwest rain in the 11-15 day period. The 10 day EU model rainfall forecast is attached. Temps will be cool with highs in the 70’s/80’s and lows in the 40’s/50’s.
** EU 10 Day Rainfall Forecast:
