** AgResource Pre Opening Monday Market Calls: Soybeans 1 cent higher to 2 cents lower, corn steady to 1 cent lower with wheat 1 cent higher to 2 cents lower.
** Monday Weather & Market Comment Discussion: Happy Labor Day! Opening week CBOT calls are mixed to slightly lower. Rising tensions with North Korea and hurricane Irma, which looks to scrape along the eastern coastline of Florida and make landfall in the Carolina’s, could produce some early week selling. A Gulf landing of Irma would be more destructive of saturated Delta crops.
However, we doubt that any selling will be very robust with China having only limited coverage of soybeans beyond mid October, a USDA Crop report on September 12th and the 22-23% of the Midwest that is in need of rain. The 10-14 day Midwest forecast offers limited rain which is forcing crops to mature more quickly with producers reporting that numerous soy fields are starting to turn. ARC looks for US corn/soy crop conditions to hold steady or decline 1% in the GD/EX category. The decline is related to the dryness and seasonal considerations as crops mature. S Midwest corn harvest will start later this week.
** August 1- September 16th Percent of Normal Rainfall:
Friday’s CoT report showed that managed money is net short 77,500 contracts of Chi wheat, 28,000 contracts of soybeans, and 65,000 contracts of corn.
** Central US Weather Pattern Discussion; The GFS & EU forecast models are in broad agreement. The 10-12 day forecast is cool with a Ridge west and Trough east type of North American weather pattern. The NW upper air flow thru the Central US will curtail E Midwest US rain chances.
The EU model graphic depicts North American rainfall totals into Sept 14th. Notice the mostly dry weather profile for the Midwest with rains of .1-.7” for the E Midwest related to the eventual landfall and path of Hurricane Irma. Irma is an extremely dangerous storm and its landfall has shifted west over the holiday weekend. The storm is forecast to scrape E FL and make landfall in the Carolina’s. According to NASS, the Carolina’s would produce 158 Mil Bu of corn and 76 Mil Bu of soybeans. However, the storm is still 5-6 days away and its path is subject to change. The media will be closely following Irma based on its landfall as a Cat 4-5 storm. Irma will maintain the R/T pattern in N America and largely dry Central US weather pattern into Sept 20th. A Gulf landfall would be more concerning for southern US crops.
** EU Model 10 Day Rainfall Forecast:
