Models Hint at Better Rain in N Argentina After March 11th: The GFS & EU models lack perfect agreement, but lite showers are probable in Central Argentina this weekend. The EU’s 10-day outlook is below, Argentina’s primary crop belt is highlighted, and though coming rain won’t affect longer term moisture deficits, a pattern of complete dryness is unlikely in the last half of March. Whether rain can salvage yield potential is unknown given that 7% of the corn harvest is already completed.
Heat/dryness will prevail through the balance of the week. High temps in pockets of Cordoba and Santa Fe through Fri/Saturday will continue in the upper 80s & low 90s. Vegetation health in the very short term will deteriorate further.
Thereafter, lite but fairly widespread moisture will be allowed to expand into N Argentina. Should the EU model verify, totals of .25-1.25” will impact the driest areas of Argentina’s Ag Belt in the 8-15 day period. However, the rains come too late as produce any real yield benefit.
In Northern Brazil, heavy rains look to persist for another 10-14 days.
Central US Pattern Unchanged Nearby: La Nina Ending in April: The major forecasting models lack any Central US pattern change in the next two weeks, but the equatorial Pacific needs close watching. Warmer water is migrating eastward, and there are hints that a rapid decline in La Nina lies in the offing. However, in the near term, crop stress will persist for another 12-14 days, as evidenced by the GFS’s week 1 (top) and week 2 precip forecast at left.
Heavy rainfall returns to the Delta & Mid-South on the weekend. Totals in AR, MS, TN and KY are pegged in a range of .75-1.50” Sun-Mon. Thereafter a drier pattern emerges across the Southern US, and following a delayed start a more active pace of seeding is expected beginning March 15-16. Zero moisture is offered to the HRW Belt nearby, and maximum high temps are forecast to reach into the mid/upper 70s by late next week. A pattern shift is needed to ease concern, but more so than in recent weeks, clients need to monitor extended range outlooks as La Nina looks to end.