US Forecast Cooler Next Week; Longer Term Pattern Uncertain: The EU and GFS end the day in good agreement, and both have trended a bit cooler across a bulk of the Central US in the 6-10 day period. High pressure Ridging is still forecast to expand beginning Sun/Monday, but it’s no longer forecast to be as intense as previously. Still, the lack of soil moisture across the Plains has kept longer term climate outlooks warmer than normal in July, and actual precip totals through the next 3-4 days will be critical in determining model output thereafter.
A slow-moving frontal system will work across the E Plains and Midwest over the next 72 hours. Cumulative totals through the weekend will reach upwards of 2-3” across E NE, IA, WI and N IL, and as evidenced in the graphic at left noticeable boosts in soil moisture there are expected. Temps through the balance of the week will range in the 70s and 80s, or a few degrees below normal.
In the wake of this front, a high pressure Ridge will expand to envelop a majority of the Central US July 2-12. The Ridge today is not forecast to be as blocking in nature as was projected Monday, but relatively warmer and drier conditions are expected during the first half of the month. Lite showers are offered to the Southern Midwest next Wed-Fri, and zero moisture is forecast in the 11-15 day period. Temps are expected in the 80s and low 90s across the heart of the Corn Belt, and will again reach into the low 100s across the Western Plains. The extended range outlook has improved, but confirmation of better rain is desired.
The EU model’s July temp forecast is at left, and ARC is in agreement with this outlook based on precip to date and current soil moisture levels. The odds are high that warmth continues across the Western Corn Belt through pollination.