Model Agreement Poor; Dryness Mostly Likely Continues: The midday GFS trended wetter across the Eastern Plains & Midwest beginning next Mon/Tuesday, but so far no other model has validated this pattern shift. Rather, the EU model’s outlook, along with NOAA, projects ongoing heat across the Central Plains and below normal precip across a bulk of the Central US through the next 10-14 days. Our work suggests a pattern change won’t be established in full until the last half of August.
Near term, heavy but isolated showers will linger across the NW Midwest and Great Lakes Wed-Friday with accumulations pegged as high as 2-4” across pockets of IA, MN and WI. Rains will fall across the E Dakotas, but no change in drought conditions is expected – as some 6-8” is needed to fully replenish soil moisture. Elsewhere, an amplified high pressure Ridge aloft the southern half of the US will maintain temps some 6-12 degrees above normal. Highs in the 90s and 100s will (unfortunately) persist across the Plains.
The models next week are in very poor agreement. We mention again that the EU model has been most accurate since spring, and so the GFS’s cooler/wetter solution is viewed as overdone.
The GFS’s 6-10 day forecast (top at left) features a broad Ridge/Trough pattern, which if realized will allow cooler and wetter air to be funneled into the heart of the Corn Belt. The EU model keeps the mean position of high pressure Ridging centered aloft the Plains and W Midwest, which will keep the jet stream well north of major producing areas – and thus heat and dryness will continue next week. NOAA’s latest 8-14 day update is also void of any major pattern shift, and it keeps meaningful precip isolated to far Southern and Eastern US. Temps will stay well above average across the Central and Northern Plains.
The overall theme remains one of expanding drought, which in turn will allow heat to persist west of the MS River.