Brazilian Pattern Shift on Track; More Heavy Rain Needed: The EU and GFS are still in mostly good agreement – though the GFS is a bit spottier with soaking rainfall in Mato Grosso next week – and a more normal monsoonal flow does lie in the offing. However, deficits compared to recent years will persist into the opening part of November, which suggests that a pattern of above normal rainfall is needed over the next 30-45 days to fully replenish soil moisture. Aug-Oct rainfall in Mato Grosso, which includes today’s 7-day forecast, is attached. Cumulative Aug-Oct precip is pegged at 4.6”, vs. 7.5” last year and 10.0” on average.
Dryness in Central Brazil and unwanted rainfall in Buenos Aires are forecast through the coming weekend. Thereafter, the upper pattern opens up to allow much better moisture to reach into Central Brazil. It does appear that totals in excess of 2” next week will be only regional in nature, but the wet season in Brazil will have begun.
Perhaps a more significant issue in the near term is ongoing excessive rainfall in S Brazil and Paraguay, which looks to continue throughout the next 7-10 days.
Midwest Slightly Wetter Extended Period; Abnormally Cold Next Week: Lite to moderate rains will persist in areas surrounding the Great Lakes for another 12-24 hours, followed by a drier but much cooler pattern next week. The EU and GFS models project another chance of rainfall east of the MS River Oct 28-30, but a pattern of lasting moisture is unlikely.
NOAA’s 6-10 day temp anomaly forecast is below, and indeed an abnormally cold pattern is probable over the next 10-12 days. A deep low pressure Trough will sink into the heart of the Corn Belt beginning Fri/Sat, which will pull overnight lows to near/below freezing across much of the Plains and Midwest. There’s a chance of lite snowfall across the Southern and Central Plains late next week, but a better chance of heavy snow in SE Canada, MN & WI. We mention this because snowfall tends to promote a more lasting period of cold temps, and snow cover this year looks to develop earlier than normal.