Argentine Forecast Slightly Wetter; La Nina Arrives: The equatorial Pacific has been at La Nina thresholds for two consecutive months, and all models remain in agreement that La Nina will be established officially by December. La Nina then persists into Feb/Mar. This won’t be an issue for the Northern Hemisphere growing season (neutral ENSO is expected by spring), but a close eye needs to be kept on Southern Brazil and Argentina over the next 90 days.
Brazil’s forecast is a bit wetter in the 6-10 day period, and soaking rainfall upwards of 4-6” will impact parts of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais – where it’s most needed.
The EU and GFS models are in fair agreement on lite/moderate – but scattered – rain impacting Argentina late next week. Temps in Argentina will rise into the 70s and low 80s, and so much more rain will be needed by early Dec. 30-day rainfall in Cordoba, Santa Fe and fringe areas of N Argentina rests at 40-60% of normal. Next week’s rain event will do little to boost soil moisture.
US Pattern Stagnant through Late November: A deep low pressure Trough will continue swirling aloft the eastern part of Canada over the next two weeks. This will act to sustain a pattern of normal/below normal temps and a series of lite rain/snow events east of the MS River. Ongoing dryness and warmer than normal temps continue elsewhere. 16-day precip accumulation is at left.
The bulk of coming moisture occurs Wed-Sun, and will be centered on IL, IN, OH, MI and KY. Totals there into the weekend are pegged at .50-2.00”. A second event occurs in the 11-15 day period, and will also favor the far E Midwest.
Even 16-30 day forecasts this evening project ongoing warmth across the Western US, ongoing cooler than normal temps in the east and mostly dry weather in all areas. Official winter climate forecasts will be updated Thursday morning.