Argentina Wetter 6-10 Day Period; Northeast Brazil Drier: The major forecasting models are in broad agreement in South America, and needed rain will fall across much of Argentina’s crop belt this weekend. Totals are estimated in a range of .25-1.00”, with a locally greater amounts possible. But notice in the graphic that cumulative rainfall since the beginning of the growing season is still just 60% of normal, and even decent rain events every 10 days won’t solve Argentina’s soil moisture problem.
Temps in Argentina & S Brazil through the week ahead will continue in the 90s and low 100s, accelerating moisture declines, and vegetation health over the next week or so will worsen. What’s needed is a period of lasting rainfall, but this isn’t forecast into the latter part of January. Climate models maintain below normal precip across N and NE Brazil in late Jan & Feb, which needs monitoring, but in the meantime conditions in much of Brazil are largely favorable, mostly due to the lack of any threatening heat.
Temp Pattern Flips; Polar Vortex to Remain Unstable: Anomalous warmth will be spread across the entirety of the Central US over the next 72 hours, but the outlook into late January does feature additional bouts of bitterly cold temps, particularly across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The polar vortex, which now has receded into central Canada, will continue to wobble in the weeks ahead, and so a wide variety of temps are indicated over the next two weeks.
Rain/snow will also be expanding slightly farther west in the next 4-5 days. The GFS & EU models are in agreement that isolated moisture will impact much of E KS & NE this week. Heavier totals are expected across the Southern and Eastern Midwest Fri-Saturday.
However, isolated precip won’t end drought expansion, and follow up moisture is not forecast west of the MS River. Dryness returns to the Plains beyond this weekend, and 60-day precip across TX, OK, KS, CO and NE remains at 0-40% of normal.