Argentina Drier in Extended Period; Pattern Change Remains Unlikely: Most importantly, the EU & GFS ensemble models have reduced the coverage and intensity of rainfall in Argentina in the 11-15 day period. Now the two are in general agreement that meaningful totals in mid-Feb will (again) be confined to far Northern Provinces, which account for just 5-10% of crop production.
In the meantime, complete dryness will continue as a high pressure Ridge is anchored aloft Central Argentina through the period, and high temps in the 90s and low 100s will be commonplace.
Like in the US, the climate in Argentina & S Brazil is being dominated by La Nina. A major pattern change requires the equatorial Pacific to warm, which is not indicated through spring.
The CFS model’s 16-30 day precip anomaly forecast is at left, and ARC expects drought to worsen through the heart of Argy corn pollination and soybean pod fill. Argy crop concerns are real.
Plains Drought Expands; Two-Week Forecast Stays Dry: The EU & GFS models are wetter in the E Midwest, including IL, IN, OH and KY, but otherwise the pattern is little changed. The Polar Vortex returns to the far Northern US in early February, triggering another round of cold temps across the N Plains/ Great Lakes. However, the jet stream will stay north and east of the US HRW Belt, and like we’ve mentioned in recent wires, this pattern holds into the end of winter. 15-day precip is at attached; Severe/extreme drought conditions will be expanding west of the MS River. Lite rain/snow will impact the Midwest & Delta/Southeast every few days into February 10th. Heavy cumulative totals are probable across the Delta & far S Midwest as evidenced in the graphic. A noticeable temperature gradient will continue indefinitely, with highs pegged in the teens and 20s across the N Plains and Great Lakes. Readings will be more spring-like in the S Plains, where in TX, OK, KS and CO highs will range in the 50s & 60s. Drought will attract greater market attention beginning in late February as corn planting begins in earnest across the Gulf States.