** AgResource Pre Opening Sunday Market Calls: Soybeans 1-3 cents higher, corn and wheat steady to 1 cent higher.
** Sunday Weather & Market Comment Discussion: CBOT opening week calls are steady to slightly higher on a continued below normal rainfall pattern across Argentina and the southern third of Brazil for the next 10 days. There were showers across the western ag areas of Argentina with totals of .1-1.25”. The rains fell Friday PM and Saturday AM.
The attached map reflects rain percentages vs normal for the past 30 days. Notice that a large expanse of Argentina and SE Brazil were short changed on rainfall. Better rains are needed in the next few weeks or yield reductions will be unavoidable. Unfortunately, the forecasts do not offer much rain for this area in the next 10 days.
**Nov 23-Dec 23 % of Normal Rainfall:
Friday’s CoT report showed that managed funds are short 119,000 contracts of Chi wheat (down 4,000), short 160,000 corn (down 37,000), and long 53,000 contracts of soybeans (up 21,000 contracts). Funds are long 14,000 soyoil (down 13,000) and long 64,000 soymeal (up 15,000 contracts).
The USDA December Crop report is out on Tuesday. WASDE may be loath to cut US corn and soybean exports if they feel adverse weather will strike 2018 South American crop yields, thereby raising summer US corn and soy export potential. ** South American Weather Pattern Discussion: The US and EU weather models are in only fair agreement. The attached 10 day EU model forecast continues a trend of below normal rainfall for Argentina and S Brazil. The forecast models offer better rain chances in the 11-15 day period, but this rain is not being pulled forward in the forecast which raises considerable doubt as to its correctness. ARC advises clients to place their focus on the 10 day forecast until it’s clear that projected rains are being pulled forward in time.
The best chance of rain in the next 10 days is next weekend with a frontal pass that can produce .1-1.00” of rain on 40-50% coverage. Many areas will missed with rains no better than .25”. High temps will range from the mid 80’s to the lower 100’s – 3-7 degrees above normal for the 10 day period.
** EU Model 10 Day Rainfall and 15 Day Temperature Departure:
** CBOT Market Discussion: Drought does not imply no rain, but a trend of below normal rainfall. This has been the case for Argentina and S Brazil since late September. Now temps are rising too!
