** AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle futures closed higher last week and a firm outlook is offered for early trade at the start of 2018. Stronger cash trade, along with bitter cold temperatures across the Plains cattle feeding regions looks to offer support at the start the new trading year.
The week’s cash business held until Friday afternoon, with feedlots strong resisting lower bids, and packers were ultimately forced into paying higher asking prices to get showlists bought. Sales were generally $3 higher from the previous week at $123.
While fed cattle supplies are well over a year ago, feedlots are now dealing with extreme weekend temperatures that were well below 0°F over the long weekend, and look to stay historically low in the upcoming week. The chart plots state wide average temps for NE, showing low temps falling 15-30 degrees below normal in the last week, with the forecast generally showing a below normal temp outlook into mid-month. The temperature stress looks to work against carcass weights and slow the marketing pace.
Weather related rallies in the cattle market will offer the next chance for sales at $125-128 April or $118-120 basis June futures.
** South American Weather Pattern Discussion: The US and EU weather models are in good agreement on the 10 day forecast. A trend of below normal rainfall is forecast for Argentina and S Brazil. Temps will be well above normal across Argentina and S Brazil this week with highs in the 90s to lower 100s. A few lite showers are possible late Friday and the weekend with totals of traces of .5”. However, more than half of the Argentine crop areas will be missed.
Cordoba did well on the long holiday weekend with rainfall totals of .5-1.25” while most other ag areas were either skipped or received rain totals of less than .4”. The weekend rains were disappointing for Argentina/S Brazil!
High temps on Friday and Saturday were in the 90’s to lower 100’s with slightly cooler readings in Sunday/Monday.
The rainfall graphic is from the EU model and it reflects its rainfall forecast over the next 10 days. Note the persistent dryness across Argentina.
The 12 day forecast maintains a dry weather trend across Argy/S Brazil with warming temperatures. Highs will reach the 90’s to lower 100’s. Regular rain looks to drop across much of Brazil with near normal temps. South American weather is following traditional La Nina trends.
** 10 Day South American Rainfall Forecast:
