** AgResource Pre-Opening Monday Calls: Soybeans, wheat and corn are called 2 cents higher to 1 cent lower.
** Holiday Weekend Weather & CBOT Market Discussion: Opening CBOT calls are mixed. Its another week of US/China trade politics and what that will imply for US ag export demand going forward? US President Trump tweeted on the weekend that after meeting with members of his USTR trade team back from Beijing that: “Big progress is being made on soooo many different fronts! Our country has such fantastic potential for future growth and greatness on even a higher level!” US President Trump could sign the biggest trade deal in history sometime in March if this week’s DC US/China meetings produce additional progress.
The DC negotiations will focus on signing MOU’s on points of agreement. We expect that one US/China MOU will be on US ag trade. The unknown is whether these MOU’s will be released to the public? If they are, the MOUs will define the amount of ag goods that China will pledge to secure annually? Having the US ag market understand if China is pledging to secure $35-45 Bil dollars is a big deal.
The USDA Ag Outlook Meeting will be held late week and WASDE will release their 1st official 2019/20 balance sheets for US corn, wheat and soybeans and products. In their November Baseline Report, WASDE forecast 2019/20 US corn end stocks of 1,603 Mil Bu, wheat of 933 Mil Bu and soybeans of 725 Mil Bu. Of course, WASDE will adjust US 2019 wheat seeding lower amid the 110 year low in ’19 US winter wheat acres. ARC expects Friday’s WASDE release to be positive for the CBOT and kick off the new crop stocks/price debate.
Also, on Friday we get a data dump from FAS on US weekly export sales data for the past month to catch up the weekly report data.
**Feb 1- Mar 4 % of Normal Rain; Dryness Worries Deepening in S Argentina:
** South American Weekend Weather Forecast: The models have been reducing the coverage of needed rain for S Argentina with two passing cold fronts in the next 10 days. ARC sees rain totals of .25-1.25” for the period, about half of normal. Heat will be noted early this week with cooler temps on the weekend and next week. This will help ease any early moisture stress.
The Brazilian soy harvest has reached 40% completed as of today, with near to above normal rainfall favoring winter corn. Temps will be in the 80’s/90’s which is seasonal for LH of February. Soy crop yield harvest results are extremely variable, but we do not see a Brazilian soy crop of less than 114 MMTs.
** Southern Half of Argentina to Hold in Drier Weather Trend; Brazil Rains Near to Above Normal:
** No Extreme or Lasting Heat for South America in next 10 Days:
** North American Weather Pattern Shows No Change next 2 Weeks; Arctic Cold NW Plains:
** Heavy and Deepening Snow for W Lake Sates into Early March:
** More Flooding Rains for Delta and the Gulf States into March 1st:
