CBOT Called Mixed on Weather; Wheat Lower, Soybeans Higher, Corn Caught In-Between

** AgResource Pre Opening Sunday Market Calls: Soybeans 1-3 cents higher, corn 1 cent higher to 1 cent lower with wheat called 1-3 cents lower.

** Sunday Weather & Market Comment Discussion: CBOT opening week calls are mixed with weather and the Commitment of Traders report playing “key roles” in price determination. A mild to warm forecast is offered for the Central US with improved chances of moisture for the W Midwest and Plains should pressure wheat with ongoing dry weather concern for Argentina/S and NE Brazilian crop areas supporting soy. CONAB and the WASDE will be releasing monthly crop reports this week and both are expected to bump up their Brazilian soy yield estimate slightly. ARC still finds it too early to take Brazilian corn or soy yields too far above trend with the heart of the growing season still ongoing.

Friday’s CoT report showed that managed funds are; short 128,000 contracts of Chi wheat (down 17,000), short 199,000 corn (down 8,000), short 85,000 contracts of soybeans (up 16,000), long 3,000 contracts of soyoil (unched), and long 19,000 contracts of soymeal (down 12,000 contracts). As of Friday, ARC as funds short over 90,000 contracts of soybeans with a big USDA report due on Friday.

**60 Day % of Normal Rain for South America Including 14 day Forecast:

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** South American Weekend Weather Review: A few lite showers fell on the weekend across Entre Rios, portions of N Buenos Aires and NE Santa Fe. Totals ranged from traces to .50” with coverage estimated at no more than 17% of the Argy crop area. High temps ranged from the mid 80’s to the lower 100’s with stress on corn where Friday and the weekend storms missed. Dry weather was noted across the southern 1/3 of Brazil.

** South American Weather Pattern Discussion: The US and EU weather models are in fair agreement. The GFS midday 10 day forecast is below. Two weak frontal passes with the first being late next weekend and the next during the middle of next week. Each system looks to produce .2-1.00” of rain with most areas seeing at least .4” of moisture and 15-20% of the crop area enjoying more than 1.50”. This is only 30-75% of normal rainfall and key areas will remain parched. Temps will be warmest in the next 5 days with highs ranging from the lower 90’s to lower 100’s with moderation noted on the weekend and early next week. Drying/warm temps return in the 11-15 day period for Argentina and S Brazil. Regular rains look to fall across much of Brazil with a drying trend for RGDS and NE Brazilian crop areas. No extreme heat is noted – excluding RGDS in S Brazil.

** 10 Day GFS Rainfall Forecast: Too Dry in Argy/S Brazil;