** AgResource Pre Opening Sunday Market Calls: Soybeans 3-6 cents higher, corn and wheat 1-2 cents higher.
** Sunday Weather & Market Comment Discussion: CBOT opening week calls are slightly higher on dry Argentine weather forecasts with plenty of rain across Northern Brazil that will slow the harvest. ARC expects elevated volatility this week as President Trump offers his State of the Union Speech amid more threatening South American weather forecast. The Argentine dryness looks to become worrisome over the next 2-3 weeks amid a pattern of below normal rainfall and above normal temps. A high pressure Ridge holds across Argentina into at least February 10th.
Friday’s CoT report showed that the managed money is; short 145,000 contracts of Chi wheat (up 2,000), short 220,000 corn (down 7,000), short 81,000 soybeans (down 22,000), short 21,000 soyoil (up 15,000), and long 33,000 contracts of soymeal (up 25,000). The surprise was funds adding to their net short soyoil and wheat positions.
**Dec 1-Feb 11 % of normal Rain**
The US and EU weather models are in good agreement which raises our confidence in the forecast. The 10 day EU model precipitation map highlights the areas of limited rain and expanding dryness across much of Argentine ag areas. Argentine rainfall will be meager over the next 10-14 days with a few lite showers producing totals of traces to .5”. Such rain will be well below normal with heat being produced by a high pressure Ridge and drying soils. Warm to hot temps will return to Argentina this week with highs reaching the 90’s to lower 100’s. The heat will further deplete soil moisture.
Weekend rainfall totals ranged from zero to 1.70” across far SE Cordoba. The coverage of rains greater than .50” was less than 15% of the ag areas. Most totals ranged from .1-.5” which fell well short of crop needs.
Heavy rains look to slow the early soybean harvest across Mato Grosso and Goias with rains of 4-9.00” over the next 10 days. S Brazil will be drier, but recent rains have aided soil moisture.
No extreme heat looks to be produced across any of Brazil due to considerable cloudiness.