Corn futures today ended slightly higher, and largely shrugged off a much wetter Argentine pattern predicted by the GFS at midday. Indeed, the EU model (below) this afternoon failed to validate the GFS’s solution, particularly in C Argentina, and instead rainfall over the next 10 days will be rather scattered. Some rain will fall, but not enough to reverse the trend in soil moisture. Sunday night’s forecast is key, particularly as the models start to peek into the latter part of December. ARC maintains that any meaningful pattern shift there will be difficult over the next 30-45 days amid ongoing cool equatorial Pacific Ocean temps.
Otherwise, the managed funds as of Tuesday were short a net 161,000 contracts in Chicago, a number roughly in line with expectations, if perhaps a bit smaller. Short term direction will upon whether heavy rain finally appears in Argentina’s 10-day forecast, and ARC notes that 45-day precip across much of Argentina’s Corn Belt ranges from 40-60% of normal.
