CBOT corn futures ended flat and traded in just a 3-cent range. Thursday’s weekly export sales data should offer support, with sales through the week ending Jan 3rd estimated in a range of 30-35 Mil Bu. This week’s EIA report also featured enlarged ethanol production and a decline in ethanol stocks.
US ethanol production last week totaled 303 Mil Gal, up a hefty 18 Mil on the prior week and actually above the same week in 2018. The graphic at left shows weekly stocks/use and rather quickly ethanol supply & demand is much more balanced. Ethanol prices rallied again on stronger crude and gasoline prices. The worst of biofuel’s demand drag has passed.
Argentine corn takes over as the world’s cheapest feedgrain for delivery beyond the next 30 days. A close eye will be kept on developing dryness in Buenos Aires, La Pampa and Cordoba, but crop threats today are lacking.
We await weekly export sales, US-China trade progress and next week’s USDA Outlook Conference. We do mention that managed funds are estimated to be long just 17,000 contracts, vs. 130,000 in mid-December. Only sell on rallies.