Models Wetter Across Argentina: The EU/GFS models are in good agreement, and both have added rainfall to Argentina in the 8-15 day period. This will ease concerns over developing dryness in Buenos Aires and Cordoba. The attached graphic shows predicted 8-14 day precip anomalies. Mostly favorable weather will be ongoing into the end of February.
The forecast is also a bit wetter in Southern Brazil next week and beyond. Widespread rainfall worth 2-4” impacts the whole of Brazil into early next week. Lesser, but widespread totals are offered to Brazil in the 8-14 day period. Temps are pegged within a few degrees of normal with highs in the 80s/90s.
Should the forecast verify, 70-140% of normal precip will have fallen across both Argentina and Brazil during February. Early safrinha corn conditions in Brazil will be good/ excellent following upcoming timely moisture.
Polar Vortex Stays Perched North of Northern Plains: The Central US forecast into late month is static. Arctic air stays anchored aloft across S Canada and the far Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. This will sustain well below normal temps in all but the Southeastern corner of the US. Minimum temps in the 11-15 day period are at left. Lows in the single digits reach into; NE, IA, NE KS and N IL.
It also remains that snows will be pulled across the Plains and Midwest every few days. Snow accumulations in to Feb 23 is estimated in a range of 4-10”, favoring; SD, MO, IA and WI. This will sustain below normal temps. Heavy rain will be ongoing across the Delta/Southeast.
The 16-30 day guidance maintains cooler than normal Central US temps into March 13th. Soil moisture is well above normal in all regions. Cold temps in March will prevent early corn planting through the Delta/Gulf States.