FAS reported weekly soybean export sales this morning at a 6 week low of 1.1 MMTs, with weekly exports at 2.3 MMTs. Those 2 figures together take total US soybean export commitments to nearly 33 MMTs. Cumulative export shipments according to FAS’s count now total 17 MMTs, up 1 MMT from last year, and the largest soybean export rate on record. However, it’s the pace of sales, or rather outstanding sales that is disappointing. Outstanding sales are down 5.5 MMTs (26%) from a year ago, with the total just short of 16 MMTs. The USDA has maintained a record large soybean export forecast of 61 MMTs for the last 3 months, which means that US exporters have committed 53% of the forecast, versus a commitment rate of 63% last year and the 5 year average of 68%. While the USDA has a track record of under estimating exports in November, the current pace is suggesting that they could be too high this year.
Soymeal export sales for last week were slightly below average, while weekly shipments were at a marketing year high and the largest 1 week export total since last March. To date, exporters have committed 4.4 MMTs of soymeal for export, which is near unchanged from a year ago. The shipment pace through the first 6 weeks of the year has been just over 1 MMTs, 12% more than last year and the best in 4 years. But like soybeans, the amount of outstanding sales are running behind a year ago and are the lowest since 2012. The USDA has held their export forecast at just over 11 MMTs since May, which if realized would be the 2nd largest annual soymeal export total on record. A year ago, the November WASDE over estimated annual meal exports by just 3%, but since 1990, there has been a very strong tendency (82% of the time) for the November WASDE to under estimate annual soymeal exports.
Due to uncertainty over biofuel demand in the upcoming year, US soyoil has traded at significant premiums to both S American soyoil and Asian palm oil throughout much of 2017. Brazilian soyoil this week is offered $17-20/MT under the US and Argentine offers have been quoted us much as $40/MT cheaper. The biofuel premium that has been built into the US market has muted export business. Soyoil export sales this morning were at a marketing year low of just 2,664 MTs, while outstanding sales of just over 105,000 MTs are the lowest since 2011. The export pace has also been off to a very slow start, and total export commitments of 186,492 MTs are down 47% from last year and the smallest since 2013. The story for the soyoil market in the year ahead will be domestic biofuel demand, as S American soyoil and Asian palm oil markets fill world vegoil demand.
