CBOT soybean and meal markets were higher overnight on strong volume, and held onto good gains into Monday’s close. Only light rains fell across key Argentine crop areas over the weekend, and Monday’s weather model updates offered hot/dry weather into mid February. Commodity fund traders were estimated buyers of; 5,500 soybean, 2,500 soymeal, and 2,000 soyoil contracts.
US soybean export inspections were towards the top end of expectations at 40.6 Mil Bu, but were down from the previous week. 56% of the week’s inspection total was destined for China, though US exports to China are in decline as demand prepares to shift to S America. The Brazilian soybean lineup continues to gain momentum, with January exports expected at 1.8 MMTs (1.2 a year ago), and the February lineup now showing 3 MMTs. Waiting times to load boats at key ports are historically low, so the trade waits on harvest to get this year’s new crop export program underway.
Argentine crop risks are real while funds are still sitting on a record large January net short position. A close in March soybeans above $9.95- a weekly trendline would offer a more bullish outlook for the 1st half of February.
