Soybeans gapped higher at the overnight open, on follow through technical buying and held the gains through the day. Soymeal paced the day’s rally on Argentine crop concerns .
Commodity fund traders were estimated buyers of 5,000 soybean and 4,000 soymeal contracts, while selling 4,500 contracts of soyoil.
Other data included in the NOPA report was December soymeal exports at 926,174 short tons, which was the largest monthly export total since last March. The chart shows that there is a moderate relationship between NOPA meal exports and the total US export rate, with NOPA accounting for 74% of total soymeal exports in the last year.
Based on the NOPA data, we estimate that total December soymeal exports could be just over 1.2 million tons. If realized, this would put 1st quarter meal exports 7% ahead of last year, on track to reach the USDA’s annual forecast of 12.2 Mil tons.
With December 1st US soybeans stocks record large, S American weather is the only remaining bullish market factor. Initial targets for March soybean futures are; $9.80 and then $10.10. We look to add to sales on strong rallies. China is short bought and needing forward coverage.
