After a higher open, hog futures rallied back to recover most of Monday’s losses. July led the rally, while December matched the best daily close since late March. The hog index was up $.57 at $80.59 versus June hogs at $82.775, and the index is projected to be another $.57 higher on Wednesday and the best since last July.
The National Weekly Pork Report on Monday showed packer sales for export last week were at a 5 week high of 22.7 Mil Lbs, a slight uptick after declining over the last 2 months. The export trend is often opposite of price, typically bottoming mid-summer as prices reach their seasonal highs, and then build into the end of the year as prices work lower. The pork packer data typically captures 20-25% of total US exports, but a lower monthly export number for May can be expected in the next International Trade report.
July hogs have held in less than a $4 range over the last 11 trading days, and we expect that this broad range continues into the end of month inventory report.
