NASS reported a total US soybean crush rate for the month of March at 160 Mil Bu, or 7 Mil Bu (5%) over the NOPA crush figure that was released in mid April. Since NASS resumed the monthly crush report in 2015, NOPA has on average represented 94% of the total US crushing industry, and the March total was at 96%. Cumulative crush for the year now totals 1,136 Mil Bu or 1% over a year ago, while the latest USDA forecast calls for a 3% increase in the annual crush total. This means that monthly crush rates in the remaining 5 months of the year need to average 5% over a year ago. US soybean stocks are that the largest level in the last decade and 2nd largest on record. So the supply is available, the question going forward is whether the market needs, or will incentivize crushers to lift processing rates, through what is historically a slow time of year?
US end of month March soymeal stocks were reported at 300,938 short tons, a 17% decline from February and below last year (barely) for the first time since October. Total meal stocks on hand represented 8.6% of total monthly production, or the lowest since last August. Meal production in the first half of the year has been record large, while total exports through February were down 4%. A record large hog herd, and larger domestic poultry flock have kept domestic meal demand strong, and more than offse the lost export business. The International Trade report on Thursday will provide import and export data for March, and the final pieces of information for calculating domestic use. But the monthly production and stocks data suggest good disappearance through the month of March.
Monthly soyoil stocks were reported at 2.35 Bil Lbs, a 7% increase from February and 1% more than a year ago. Stocks have steadily increased from the start of the year and March is only the 2nd month in which end of month stocks were greater than last year. Supplies are expected to seasonally decline through the summer as production rates slow and biofuel demand increases. The chart marks the USDA’s year end stocks estimate of 2.12 Bil Lbs, or a 24% increase over last year. The USDA projects annual exports will increase less than 1%, though export commitments last week were 15% larger than a year ago. Of course the largest unknown is in biofuel demand. Rumors early this week are that there will be an announcement regarding changes to the US biofuel program on Friday that will attempt to slow foreign biodiesel imports, either through sanctions or a direct domestic production credit. Either could raise domestic vegoil demand and lower US soyoil stocks.
