Wheat ended higher in the US, lower in Europe, and much of this attributed to currency changes. The US dollar ended the session lower following disappointing US employment data, while the euro strengthened slightly. Managed funds as of Tuesday were short a net 56,000 contracts in Chicago, smaller than expected and down 9,000 on the previous week. Also of note, funds in Minneapolis are long just 5,000 contracts, down 65% from mid-summer.
Interior Russian prices were again steady in both rubles and US dollars. There’s a rather wide spread ($50/MT) between interior and fob prices, but that the interior market has stabilized is important. Russian fob offers this evening are weaker, but only very slightly, and US Gulf HRW is offered competitively.
The USDA’s October WASDE will be the first in which Australian production is seriously adjusted, but otherwise we doubt any fireworks lie in the offing. We advise against chasing breaks, and look to extend new crop sales on any test of $5.00-5.10, basis July 18.
