EU and Black Sea wheat markets were quiet and little changed, while US futures fell 5-6 cents, basis KC/CME, amid the coming shift to wetter Central US weather. This will especially benefit the SRW Belt, which has been extremely dry over the last 45 days, and soil moisture is noticeably lacking. Much of MO, IL, WI and MI will see cumulative totals upwards of 2-3”, and it couldn’t come fast enough as SRW planting typically accelerates in October.
Otherwise, fresh news remains lacking. US weekly export sales are estimated in a range of 400-550,000 MTs, and as of this evening Gulf HRW is, on paper, just $1/MT above comparable Russian origin, basis fob.
The EU & GFS models are in fair agreement that better rainfall lies ahead for the driest areas of NSW beyond Oct 10th, but ARC notes that precip recorded there in September totaled just .30”, which rivals the drought of 2007.
We advise against chasing breaks.
