Wheat futures, like corn, are unwilling to move ahead of Thursday’s USDA report. Fresh input today is neutral, though we do mention funds have added roughly 10,000 contracts to their net short position since last Tuesday. The spec community as a whole is leaning a bit bearish heading into the October reports.
Winter wheat planting as of Sunday reached 48% complete nationwide, vs. 58% on average. Delays are most noticeable across the Southern and Central Plains, where too much rain has fallen (150-600% of normal in the last 14 days), and seeding in KS is just 27% complete, half of what it is normally in early October. This is also the lowest on record. How this affects final wheat acreage is unknown, but certainly cash prices are offering little incentive to boost area.
Egypt secured 170,000 MTs of Russian wheat for late Nov delivery. Egypt paid an average price of $199/MT, basis fob, unchanged from last week. Along with stable interior prices in Southern Russia, downside risk in the world cash market is limited to $1-3/MT, and we maintain better US export opportunities lie ahead.
