World wheat prices ended lower as Egypt’s phytosanitary standards are still very uncertain – whether ergot will be tolerated or not – which on the margin would act to close Egyptian interest. However, following today’s break, Egypt is seeking optional origin supply for early January arrival, and the results of the tender are anxiously awaited. It’s expected that Russia will again be awarded the business, but at what fob price?
Otherwise abnormal warmth will persist into early December across the whole of Black Sea region allowing exports to continue unabated. US crop conditions will stay steady, though more attention will be given to developing dryness across the Plains and rain/snow fails to materialize in the next 2-3 weeks. NOAA’s winter climate forecast is due Thursday AM.
Plains HRW basis is narrowing quickly, which is partially seasonal but cash wheat prices have not followed the recent break in futures. ARC suspects a better demand pull for HRW at export terminals. Sales on Thursday are estimated in a range of 400-550,000 MTs.
No new sales are advised, we await short covering rallies to $4.40 or above spot.
