Weekly Newsletter, Dec 13
In this week’s newsletter, we take a look at corn option volatility, as well as US corn basis levels.
Wheat Rebounds; Funds’ Short Position Rather Large
US wheat futures ended mostly higher amid limited news, but in the last week managed funds’ net short position has become quite large. As of tonight ARC estimates funds are short a net 135,000 contracts, and notice that short positions in excess of 130,000 don’t tend to last very long. Bullish news, however, is limited…
Corn Recovers Post-WASDE; Better Export Demand Looming?
Corn futures rallied to modest gains amid another week of strong ethanol production, a slight decline in ethanol stocks, and ongoing ethanol exports. Confidence in next week’s rain event in Argentina is rising, but at the same time US Gulf corn has been confirmed as the world’s cheapest feedgrain through February, and ARC doubts the…
Afternoon Weather Update
Models Maintain Agreement on Rainfall in Argentina: The EU, GFS and Canadian models are in agreement that widespread rainfall worth 1-3” will impact the Northern 2/3rds of Argentina’s crop belt next Wed-Saturday, thus further raising confidence in its arrival. Very scattered showers are also likely on the weekend, and while expected these rains are desperately…
Soybeans End Firm In Quiet Post USDA Report Trade
Soybeans traded within the prior day’s range at midweek and closed firm. January soybeans held in just a 5.5 cent range between the overnight and day sessions, and settled up 3.5 cents. Trading volume was noticeably reduced, with the CME estimating volume at just over 211,000 contracts versus the 5 day average of 304,000. …
