AgResource Weekly Newsletter, Nov 28
In this week’s newsletter, we take a look at US wheat export demand, as well as interior US wheat basis.
US Basis Analysis
US corn and soy basis has so far followed seasonal trends, with extreme weakness noted during early harvest and a recovery unfolding thereafter. Like in 2016, it’s the speed of this recovery that’s noteworthy. Central IL basis is shown below. From the weakest point of late September, basis there has rallied 37 cents in a…
Evening Weather Update
EU Model Hints at Drier Weather in Central Brazil: The South American forecast remains mostly benign aside from excessive regional precip in Central and Northern Brazil. The graphic below shows that rainfall up to mid-October fully replenished soil moisture. Additional heavy rain is now unwanted. The afternoon run of the EU model does hint at…
Corn Now Up on Week; All Eyes on G20
March corn rallied 5 cents on strength in neighboring soy and wheat markets. We don’t expect any change in US trade policy following this weekend’s meeting in Argentina, but it is true that 2-4 Mil Acres of corn are needed in 2019 to prevent further US stocks contraction. Whether the US soy farmer has access…
Wheat Rallies; Spreads Unwound Ahead of First Notice Day
US and EU futures ended higher. March KC gained 3.5 cents on Chicago, with March CME gaining 5 cents on December. More than in recent years deliveries against December contracts will be watched closely. EU cash markets are stable, Gulf HRW is still offered at a discount to Russian for Jan-Mar arrival. However, we…
