Download The Climate Impact Company Summer, Autumn and Winter U.S. Climate Forecast
The latest round of the next 3 season forecasts for North America is issued. Forecast confidence is improving now that El Nino is less likely. The forecasts are based on a constructed analog based on SSTA regimes including ENSO, the Pacific decadal oscillation, Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and tropical North Atlantic index plus the U.S. soil moisture regime and trends.
The overall ideas here are the summer ahead is not likely to produce significant energy demand to drive air conditioning in the larger energy markets such as PJM, SERC and ERCOT. There will certainly be periods of anomalous heat and humidity as with any summer but long duration heat waves driving a hot summer are becoming less likely. One of the problems is the wet soil moisture trend and the likelihood of a wet summer affecting the East.
Where is the heat this summer? Surprisingly, the western states. Coming out of a wet winter the historical precedent is for lower risk of a following hot summer. However, springtime has produced rapidly drying soils in the West and the attendant anomalous heat risk is likely to follow.
The precipitation outlook indicates periods of wet weather in parts of the Gulf of Mexico region and certainly the east Coast during the warm season but nothing prohibitive to clearly identify when tropical cyclones might strike. The North Atlantic basin is expected to produce 7 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes in 2017 implying at least a normal risk to the U.S. coastline.
The preliminary winter 2017-18 outlook is essentially near normal across the U.S. while Canada is warmer than normal. A high latitude high pressure blocking pattern is likely present more often than not. So the U.S. “normal” cold will seem a lot colder than the last 2 winter seasons.
Regarding the warm season precipitation pattern…East is wet this summer season as the 2016-17 dry-to-drought condition present especially in the Southeast will fade. June and July look dry in the North-Central to Midwest U.S. albeit a below average forecast confidence outlook. Soils are quite wet so developing important dryness will be difficult in key agriculture zones (except the northern Plains). Wet weather returns to the Corn Belt in August. Despite the hot forecast in the West a super dry pattern is not forecast for that region.
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