** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are down 10.00 cents at $10.3325, Dec corn is down 5.25 cents at $4.09 with Sept Chi wheat down 6.0 cents at $5.47.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! The overnight CBOT trading session has been slightly lower as the market awaits the July USDA Crop Report with there being little change in the overnight weather forecast.
Additional rain has fallen across the Lake States with new moisture for WI, MI and N IL and N IN received overnight. Traders will be heading to downtown Chicago with wet shoes amid the new rains.
However, the rain chances in the N Plains and the W Midwest look rather poor after today. There is a chance of rain across S IA this afternoon as front shifts southward, but thereafter the forecast turns dry and warm. The forecast remains threatening for crops in the Plains and W Midwest into late July with the drought in the Dakotas spreading south and east.
Extreme heat was felt in the Plains yesterday with highs in the lower 100’s as far north as South Dakotas with lower to mid 90’s across the W Midwest. The extreme heat is serving to rapidly lower soil moisture.
The US and EU weather models are in mostly good agreement this AM. The models are similar to each other into the 11-15 day period when the EU model wants to trek the Ridge back westward to the Plains and Intermoutain West, while the US and Canadian models hold the mean Ridge position across the South Central US. Our lean is to a blend of the forecasts with the Ridge being situated across the Plains and the W Midwest during the last week of July.
A few localized shower chances will prevail for another 1-2 days before a high pressure Ridge slowly progresses eastward producing hot/dry weather across the Central US next week. The mean position of the Ridge looks to be over MO/AR/S IL which will shut down the rain chances and raise temperatures with highs ranging from the 90’s to lower 100’s. For Midwest crop areas that did not receive any rain this week, the upcoming 6-7 days will be stressful. This remains a warmer than normal and drier than normal weather forecast for the Plains, W Midwest and a good portion of the Delta.
China released its July estimate of 2017 corn and soybean production overnight. China pegged its corn crop at 211.91 MMTs vs its June forecast of 211.65 MMTs and a soybean crop of 14.7 MMTs vs its June forecast of 14.1 MMTs. Both estimates are close to WASDE forecasts and should not have much impact.
ARC estimates that funds are net long around 20,000 of Chicago wheat and net short 14,000 contracts of corn and 23,000 contracts of soybeans. By the week’s close, funds should be nearly flat in the summer row crops with the focus being on whether they will go long amid concerning Central US weather?
The CBOT price pattern is to rally early and late in the week to add weather premium. During the midweek, the CBOT chops. The Central US weather pattern is concerning into late July and any weakness should be short lived.
** July 1-12th Actual Percent of Normal Rainfall:
