** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are up 8.75 cents at $9.34, Dec corn is up 1.0 cent at $3.675 while Sept Chi wheat is unchanged at $4.1925.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! Mostly higher has been the CBOT trade with soybeans the big gainer as rain has missed the heart of the Midwest (again). There is one more chance of rain in the next 10 days, but clearly, this rain event is not going to solve the deepening dryness across IA, IL and portions of IN. The market is back to rebuilding some weather premium back into CBOT prices.
The volume of trade has been solid with more than 25,000 contracts of December corn, over 20,000 contracts of November soybeans, and over 16,000 contracts of December Chi wheat changing hands.
CBOT open interest showed a 4,937 contract gain in corn, a 5,449 contract gain in soybeans, and a hefty 8,650 gain in wheat. ARC estimates that funds are now net short some 50,000 contracts of Chi wheat. It’s been a big 100,000 contract swing for funds from a net long 50,000 contracts to a net short 50,000 contracts, all in just around a month.
FAS will be out with their weekly export sales report this AM. No big sales totals are expected, but some hefty US soybean sales could be reported in the next few days following the signing of framed purchase contracts for 3.8 MMTs of US soybeans on Wednesday.
There were areas of heavy rains in the past 24 hours while the heart of the Midwest was short changed. Redwood Falls, MN received over 9.00” of rain while surrounding areas picked up 5-6”. Flooding is ongoing. Another area of heavy rain was the southern half of MO and S IL. But as the graphic suggests, the “fat portion” of the Midwest was largely missed leaving crop stress to build with warm temps over the next few days when highs reach into the 90’s.
The forecast offers mostly dry and warming weather into the late weekend with another chance of showers/storms late Sunday and Monday with rain totals of .2-1.00” with mostly dry weather following into the 6-10 day period. The 11-15 day period features a NW Upper air flow with any rains confined to the Gulf States and the return of cooler than normal temperatures for the Midwest.
NOAA will be out this AM with their long range forecasts for the autumn.
Reuters is reporting that N Brazil is running out of storage space for their record large corn crop with piles being stacked in the countryside. However, the Brazilian farmer is not selling via low prices with US Gulf corn cheaper this AM than Brazilian offers.
Other news is rather mundane with the markets to continue to trading Central US weather. The Pro Farmer Tour next week will help define if the ’17 US soy yield is 50 or 47 BPA or the US corn yield is 170 or less than 165 BPA? ARC’s field surveys argue for a yield on the lower end of the range. No new sales are advised.
** 24 Hour Estimated Midwest Rains;
