AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Thursday: 1/ No new advice.
6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: November soybeans are up 5.25 cents at $9.7625, Dec corn is down 1.25 cents at $3.5975 while Dec Chi wheat is up 0.25 cents at $4.46.
Good Morning! Short covering continues in the soy complex, while grains this AM are at least supported on continued dryness across the Central US, Canada and Australia. Like all week so far, the US dollar is again weaker in early trading, while most major exporter currencies are stronger. Crude is unchanged. Soy oil has found new highs for the move.
In international markets, palm oil prices have hit new 3-month highs amid expectations that the EU will cancel or delay its proposed anti-dumping tariff on biodiesel. EU milling wheat futures are up €.25/MT. Dalian corn futures in China are unchanged this morning, but have advanced to new 2017 highs in US dollar terms in spite of steady selling of government reserves into the domestic market. Chinese wheat prices have also been rallying in recent weeks.
Hurricane Irma is currently impacting the northern side of the Dominican Republic, and its projected path over the next 3-4 days is little changed, thereby raising confidence in forecasts. Landfall will be made in S Florida on Sunday. Hurricane status will be maintained as it travels in GA & SC.
But the Gulf will be spared, and so logistical issues following Harvey will continue to improve, and soybean shipments will stay robust. ARC also mentions that the GFS is in better agreement with the EU model, and so the remnants of Irma are unlikely to expand into the Eastern Midwest. Instead, only double cropped beans in KY & TN stand to benefit.
It’s another chilly morning across much of the Plains and Midwest, with early AM lows ranging mostly in the low 40s to the low 50s. Another few days of below normal readings will continue, followed by relative warmth thereafter into late month. Still no major frost/freeze event is indicated in the US or even much of the Canadian Prairies. Rainfall will be almost completely absent from the Plains and Midwest into Sep 18th, and only slightly better chances are forecast thereafter.
Concern is mounting with respect to Australian crop production, as it’s nearly mid-September and the long hoped for pattern change simply hasn’t developed. Sep-Nov climate guidance there has for weeks suggested normal/above normal precip as the equatorial Pacific cools, but the near term outlook has failed to include even regional benefits. Another 10 days of dry and warming weather lies in the offing, and Australia’s cash wheat market this week has responded with a noticeable rally. Private wheat production estimates are again falling and seem to center on 21-23 MMTs. ARC’s work maintains that US wheat export potential is rising.
The EIA will release its weekly energy report in the coming hours, and all eyes will be on Friday’s CFTC report. Some additional short covering is expected heading into USDA’s September reports, but we caution against chasing rallies above $9.85, Nov beans, and $3.70, Dec corn.
