** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are down 3.25 cents at $9.7275, Dec corn is down 1.25 cents at $3.53 while Dec Chi wheat is down 2.00 cents at $4.41
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! Slightly lower has been the overnight trend at the CBOT as corn, soybeans and wheat sag after recent post USDA Crop Report gains. The harvest will quicken on the weekend and profit taking on the gains appears to be the early feature. The next few weeks will reflect increasing harvest activity with combine yield data to drive CBOT valuations. So far, Midwest producers are disappointed with early season yields, but it’s far too early to determine any US yield trend.
For the week to date, soybeans are up 10 cents, corn is down 4 cents, and wheat is up 3 cents. The export demand pull of the soy market is being felt.
Overnight CBOT trading volume has exceeded 13,000 contracts of November soybeans, and over 7,000 contracts of December corn and over 5,000 contracts of December Chi wheat.
Preliminary CBOT open interest for Thursday reflects a 7,647 contract gain in corn, a 4,132 contract loss in soybeans, and 1,673 contract loss in Chi wheat. Short covering in soybeans and wheat was featured on Thursday’s rally. Final deliveries against September futures were; 56 soymeal, 96 soyoil, 39 corn, 30 soybeans, 1 Chi wheat and 39 contracts of KC wheat.
China announced that its September 1st pig herd was down 5.6% from a year ago with sows off 4.7%. However, few believe the Gov’t data as fewer producers’ report correct hog numbers over the environmental crackdown. Well placed industry watchers argue that China’s hog herd is expanding at a 5-10% rate, (which is not being caught by monthly government surveys) on profitability.
Argentina announced that as many 173,250 acres of wheat may be lost due to acute flooding. Wheat has been standing in water and even if the wheat is able to survive, sharp reductions in seed quality will be noted.
Showers/storms have formed across the N Plains and Canadian Prairies that will sink southward early next week. The best rain chances are across the N Plains and the W Midwest with limited rains for the E Midwest. Midwest producers report that crops are rapidly maturing amid the lack of soil moisture following 3-4 weeks of limited rain. The moisture will not produce much if any yield benefit as it comes at the tail end of the growing season.
South American weather gains in market importance with soy seeding underway in N Brazil while wet weather causes corn/soy planting concern in Argentina. There is no evidence of any moisture for Brazilian crop areas north of RGDS for the next 2 weeks, with dryness becoming an increasing worry. And N and E Argentina will see more unwanted heavy rains in the 7-15 day period with totals of 1-3.00”. The South American weather pattern is stable, and we see little change in the Brazilian dry weather trend for the next 2-3 weeks.
Traders will be listening to the combine – actual harvest yield data – and starting to focus on South American weather conditions for seeding. It will be interesting to gauge the depth of any correction this morning with soybeans above their 50 and 100 day moving averages. Corn and wheat will be followers.
** EU Weather Model 10 Day Rainfall Forecast:
