** AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle futures closed slightly lower on Thursday and a mixed opening is expected this AM. Early selling cattle found good demand stabilized values going home. The market is awaiting the determination of this week’s cash cattle trade.
Packers are bidding values lower, but producers are well aware of huge packer margins and are holding stout on higher offers. Trade is expected to break sometime later today with our hope for a firm marketplace. Packer buyers were quoted as bidding cattle at $102-103, while feedlot asking prices were quoted from $107-108.
The beef market was weaker Thursday with selling noted in select boxes while choice values held firm. The choice/select spread correcting back to a $4.00 choice premium. The choice boxes were up $.60 at $191 and the select value was off $1.97 at $186.72 on light to moderate demand and moderate offerings.
Our view stays bearish on rallies as we expect that record large 4th quarter beef and pork production will weigh on livestock prices into year end.
** US Weather Pattern Discussion: The EU & GFS models are in agreement on the forecast. A Trough/Ridge pattern across North America will lead to increased rainfall chances across the Plains and W Midwest in the next 14 days. The Central and Eastern Midwest will hold in a relatively dry weather pattern with near to above normal temps pushing crop maturity. The Delta and Southern US will see just a few lite showers with the harvest expanding normally.
The EU model 10 day rainfall forecast is attached. Notice the heavy rains slated to drop across; MT, ND, SD and portions of the W Midwest. The rains are falling this AM across MT/ND/SD and through KS. A cold front slides slowly south and east through the weekend. Ahead of the cold front, warm temps will be noted with highs ranging from the mid 80s to the mid 90s. Such warmth will push crop maturity. There is no evidence of a Midwest frost event into Oct 1.
The extended range 11-15 day forecast offers hints for better rain returning to the E Midwest/Delta as a shift in the North America pattern returns to a Ridge/Trough. However, this is far from certain amid additional tropical storm systems that are forming in the Western Atlantic.
