AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Thursday: 1/ Corn Producers: Sell 10% of the estimated 2018 corn harvest at $4.05 basis December 2018 futures. 2/ Sell 10% of estimated 2019 corn production at $4.18 basis Dec 2019 futures. 3/ Sell 15% if the 2017 corn crop is March 2018 corn futures reach $3.75.
6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are up 3.5 cents at $9.6175, Dec corn is up 1.0 cent at $3.4925 while Dec Chi wheat is down 1.0 cent at $4.41.
Good Morning! Corn, beans and spring wheat markets are stronger this AM as another week of very strong soybean export demand should be confirmed via weekly sales, and as Dec corn on Wednesday held firm at its contract low. There’s not a lot of market-moving news available, but as ARC mentioned yesterday soy yield data is beginning to show a bit of a drag as later planted crops are gathered.
Malaysian palm futures rallied just 2 ringgits/MT overnight, with monthly supply and demand out next week and with the trade expected another boost in stocks & stocks/use. EU milling wheat futures are unchanged, basis spot. Crude is up $.20/barrel, and this has traded both sides of $50. DOW futures are up 6 points to new record highs.
Barge freight on Wednesday fell slightly as lite rain starts to impact parts of the Midwest. The forecast this AM is wetter again in the Eastern Midwest, and the EU model is in better agreement with the others.
All major forecasting models are now on board with a tropical storm impacting the Gulf late in the coming weekend, then traveling across the Southeast and into the E Midwest in the days following. Scattered showers will also dot the drier areas of IL, IN and OH on the weekend, and so cumulative totals there into next Tues/Wed are estimated in a range of 3-4”. This tropical storm shouldn’t be too strong, and so further damage to refineries is unlikely. Seasonally, river freight tends to peak in Sep/Oct, and so a steady improvement in grain transportation is anticipated.
The GFS is also wetter in Central Brazil beginning next week, but its EU & Canadian counterparts have not followed this trend, and close attention needs to be paid to Brazilian weather in the days ahead. There’s no doubt it’s going to rain Brazil, we just wish to highlight that the arrival of the wet season is behind schedule and some key areas of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais are much drier than normal.
This morning’s export sales report will be uninspiring for grain markets, but another very solid week of soybean sales (2.0+ MMTs) is expected. China returns from its Golden Day holiday next week, and a flood of new bean purchases is forthcoming.
Next week’s USDA data will is anxiously awaited, and could spark some fireworks in the soy complex, but otherwise there’s just not a lot of compelling news for major price changes in either directions. US ag prices can’t be expensive as demand is needed, but funds are building larger net short positions in corn & wheat and certainly farmers won’t be robust sellers at current prices. Patience is advised with respect to extending sales, and next real driver of price will be Dec-Feb S American weather.
