** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are down 1.25 cents at $9.6475, Dec corn is down 1.75 cents at $3.475 while Dec Chi wheat is down 2.25 cents at $4.33.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! Weaker on improved volume is CBOT grain futures overnight. A gain in US corn/soy crop ratings has traders discussing higher yield totals for Thursday’s USDA Crop Report.
The volume of overnight CBOT trade has expanded to over 24,000 contracts of November soybeans, to over 11,000 contracts of December corn, and over 4,000 contracts of December Chi wheat.
Wednesday’s CBOT open interest reflected a 6,304 contract rise in corn, a 7,860 contract gain in soybeans, and a 5,289 contract gain in wheat. Fund managers are willing to add to their net short positions in the grains.
NASS reported that the US summer row crop ratings advanced to 64% GD/EX in corn and 61% GD/EX in soybeans. Both were up 1% in the GD/EX category. 36% of the US soybean crop and 22% of the corn are harvested thru Sunday, which were below market expectations and the pace of prior years. US farmers appear to be in no rush to harvest their crops amid poor cash basis bids. And the US corn crop is slowly drying down in the W Midwest.
A near static South American weather pattern offers no sign of change! A “winter-like” weather pattern will be maintained for the next 2 weeks with hot/dry weather across C and N Brazil, with flooding rains to fall across S Brazil. Producers across the C and N of Brazil are waiting for planting rains, while the Brazilian winter wheat crop is suffering from excessive rainfall which likely will harm crop quality. A seasonal change of pattern is awaited, but so far, not evident.
Argentina will also see below normal rains across the heart of its crop area, but temps will not be extreme with highs ranging from the 60’s/70s.
Producer and market concern are on the rise for South American production which will become more of a feature for the CBOT following Thursday’s report.
The Central US forecast calls for additional showers across the Lake States into the weekend with clearing and warming weather next week. Harvest delays will be noted, but should be brief. Warm temperatures will return early next week and persist across the Central and Eastern US into early November.
In world ag markets, Malaysian palmoil closed 1 ringgit higher at $2,695 RM/MT while Paris wheat is down $1.00 euro/MT to $162.00 on slow demand. Dalian corn and soybean futures closed mixed in sagging volume.
The demand news is limited this AM and the US harvest has not pushed ahead as strongly as expected. It’s a day of pre report positioning which will include funds buying of soybeans and the selling the grains.
The concerning South American weather forecast will come into better focus following Thursday’s USDA report as funds are looking to be buyers of a setback. Crude oil is above $51 and the US dollar is slightly weaker. ARC favors long soybeans on any acute post report weakness.
** EU Model 10 Day South American Rainfall Forecast:
