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Nationally, a dry pattern this week and remaining quite warm. Why? An intense phase 5 signature of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) in the West Pacific shaping the jet stream pattern to carry storms into western Canada and the Northwest U.S. while south and east of this storm exposure most of the U.S. is very warm and dry. In the 6-10 day period as the MJO pattern described intensifies so doe the U.S. warmth especially in the Midwest where record warmth could occur. In the 6-10 day period heavy rains slam the Northwest and the southern periphery (hopefully) reaches the northern California wildfires. In the 11-15 day period California goes dry again while the transient MJO shifts a cool pattern into the Great Plains. The chill moderates dropping into the Southeast U.S. week 3 ahead followed by more national warmth week 4 ahead. Today’s report depicts the updated winter outlook with full report issued tomorrow.
Pictured: The Climate Impact Company day 1-5/6-10 ahead precipitation anomaly forecast.
