** AgResource Pre Opening Sunday Market Calls: Soybeans steady to 2 cents lower, corn and wheat steady to 1 cent lower.
** Sunday Weather & Market Comment Discussion:Opening week calls are steady to slightly lower following Friday’s weak CBOT close and scattered rains across NW Brazilian soybean areas on the weekend. CBOT November soybean open interest continues to be liquidated ahead of 1st notice day with options expiring on Friday. With the US soybean harvest likely to surpass 65% this week, yields have been tailing off on any soybean fields planted after May 10th. The tail off in yield along with greater certainty on US biodiesel demand should produce an early week bottom with November testing key support at $9.70-9.75.
Managed money through the week ending last Tuesday are; net short 78,000 contracts of wheat (up 10,000) and 171,000 of corn (up 8,000), while being long 21,000 contracts of soymeal (up 8,000), long 68,000 contracts of soybeans (up 27,000) and 25,000 contracts of soyoil (up 2,0000 contracts). Funds added to long soy vs short grain spreads.
** South American Weather Pattern Discussion: The 10 day rainfall map for South American reflects an improved chance of moisture for NW Brazil with heavy rains to impact Parana and portions of Santa Caterina. Some crop areas here could endure 7-10” of rain in the next 10 days.
NE Brazilian soy areas are still dry, but some needed rain is promised in the 11-15 day period. All signs point to the monsoonal flow starting for N Brazil in late October/early November – about 2-3 weeks later than normal.
Argentina will enjoy a few widely scattered showers as spring planting pushes ahead while the winter wheat crop pushes to maturity. Weather concern is low for Argy crops at this time, but dryness could be a problem in late November/December.
** Central US Weather Pattern Discussion: The GFS & EU models are in fair agreement on a stormy pattern for the E US while much cooler temps is offered in the extended range forecast. The jet stream is sliding southward which will produce chilly air beyond the next few days. A frost/freeze will impact much of the Central US with lite snow possible across the N Plains. The cool temps and rain will slow harvest progress across the E Midwest with rain totals estimated in a range of .5-2.50”. High temps will decline to the 40s’/50’s with lows in the upper 20’s/30s. The W Midwest and Plains harvest will push strongly ahead with temps holding below normal.
**10 Day North American Rainfall Forecast:
** 15 Day North America Temp Anomaly:
